Garden State RYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, June 5, 2021 at 8:00 AM

Metuchen, NJ - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BORODITSKY Ethan	-	-	1%	13%	43%	43%
2	LAI Aiden	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
3	JUN Jaywu	-	3%	18%	46%	34%
3	RICHARD Owen	-	-	1%	7%	36%	56%
5	DODIN David	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
6	KUMAR Aidan	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	10%
7	SHCHUR Landon	-	5%	25%	46%	24%
8	CHERPELIS George	3%	23%	42%	26%	6%	-
9	THAKUR Om S.	-	1%	9%	38%	40%	12%
10	DACKO Alexander V.	-	4%	24%	41%	26%	5%
11	WANG Max S	12%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
12	ROLLO Emmett H.	14%	39%	35%	10%	1%
13	KNOX James	-	2%	12%	36%	40%	10%
14	DUAN Eric	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
14	WOLFE Alex	-	1%	10%	38%	40%	11%
16	WU Marcus	-	4%	25%	41%	25%	5%
17	FENG Du	27%	54%	17%	2%	-	-
18	ARAVIND Athreya	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
19	CHANG Benjamin	11%	37%	36%	13%	2%	-
20	RIPA Joseph K.	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	1%
21	XIE Brandon	1%	9%	31%	40%	17%	2%
22	LAI Boden	13%	40%	37%	9%	1%	-
23	MAHESH Tarun	17%	42%	32%	8%	1%
24	MALHAM Andrew	26%	46%	24%	4%	-	-
25	HU Robert J.	21%	45%	29%	5%	-	-
26	SUN James H.	20%	43%	30%	7%	1%
27	REDDY Arya	44%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
28	ZHANG Ethan	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
29	DROST Lucas	48%	42%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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