The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

WAY Epic Epee: Men's A4 push & Women's Open

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, April 25, 2021 at 10:00 AM

Way of the Sword Fencing - Ridgefield, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	SANDERS Ian	-	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	14%
2	MARCHANT Albert	-	4%	18%	38%	32%	7%
3	ANDREEV Arthur	-	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	22%
3	CARPENTER Liam	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
5	DION Justin	-	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	15%
6	CENTENO Dante	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
7	ZAFFT Maximo	-	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
8	GAO Daniel	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
9	WU Joseph	-	1%	7%	21%	32%	27%	11%	2%
10	GIBSON Nowell	-	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	32%	11%
11	DIXON Samuel	-	3%	13%	28%	32%	19%	5%	1%
12	PAVLENISHVILI David	-	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
13	MORSE Tyler	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	10%
14	KOKENGE Reid	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	2%	-
15	HERMANSON Daivd	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
16	LAI Coby	1%	7%	21%	32%	26%	11%	2%	-
17	SWANSON Lars	-	-	2%	8%	22%	34%	26%	8%
18	GORDON Reis	-	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
19	FENWICK Luke	3%	17%	32%	30%	15%	4%	-
20	GROSSMAN August	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
21	OLIVERIUS Joseph	-	-	3%	13%	28%	33%	18%	4%
22	LIEF Isaac	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	3%	-
23	PHO Eric	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
24	WIEDER Benjamin J	-	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	8%
25	CHESNEY Aiden	7%	24%	35%	24%	9%	2%	-
26	LANGTON Sawyer	1%	7%	23%	33%	24%	10%	2%	-
27	GREGORY Abram	-	2%	11%	26%	34%	21%	5%
28	BASOK Nikita	7%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
29	ZELIN Sam	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
30	SJOSTEDT Jacob	-	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	25%	7%
31	DIXON Thomas	6%	26%	35%	23%	8%	2%	-	-
32	WANG Darren	38%	41%	17%	4%	-	-	-	-
33	ROMERO Javier	3%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
34	RADULOVIC Milan	-	2%	11%	28%	35%	19%	3%
35	KOBI Samuel	1%	10%	27%	33%	21%	7%	1%	-
36	HEKMAT Sina	1%	6%	21%	32%	26%	11%	2%	-
37	CHOI Paul	2%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
38	WU Marcus	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
39	MANNA Phillip	-	3%	14%	31%	32%	16%	3%
40	MARICI Ryan	35%	41%	19%	4%	1%	-	-	-
41	PEDERSEN Christopher	5%	27%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
42	KOKENGE Chad	5%	24%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-	-
43	ROUSE Joseph	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.