Windy City SYC/RCC 5

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Deerfield, IL - Deerfield, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YANG Luao	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
2	LI Richard	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
3	LO Conrad	-	-	-	3%	25%	71%
3	ZHAI Jeffrey	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%
5	REEVES Liam	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
6	ORR Spencer	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
7	CULLIVAN Justice	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
8	LI Yao (Liam)	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
9	WONG Antonio	1%	7%	28%	40%	21%	3%
10	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	10%
11	MEJIA MATTHEW D.	-	1%	6%	25%	41%	24%	3%
12	GOOR Julian	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
13	LIU Ethan	-	3%	16%	37%	33%	10%
14	WECHSLER Jacob	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	25%	3%
15	ZHEN Ethan	-	-	5%	23%	41%	27%	3%
16	WOO Christian	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
17	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	4%	19%	40%	32%	4%
18	KLOTZ Isaiah	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
19	LIN Michael	-	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
20	WANG Mason	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
21	BAO Aaron	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
22	LLIDO Soren	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
23	GENIESER Graydon	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	1%
24	SOTO-ULEV Aden A.	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	15%
25	WANG Jackson	-	2%	12%	34%	37%	14%	1%
26	LAI Twayne	1%	11%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
27	SISINNI Riccardo	14%	41%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
28	LI Aaron	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
29	TAN Aidan	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
30	XIANG Derrick	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%	1%
31	BECKFORD Gavin "Bailey"	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	4%
32	MCCLURE Caleb W.	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
33	METTAPALLI Tarun	8%	31%	39%	18%	4%	-
34	FUKUDA Diego	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
35	RAJPAL Alastair	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
36	REAUME Nate	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
37	GUTH Joseph	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
38	FECHTNER Ezra M.	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
39	FINDLAY Zachary	12%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-
40	ANTONUCCI Suren	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
41	HAN Derek	14%	39%	34%	12%	1%	-
42	MAO Lucas	16%	38%	32%	11%	2%	-
43	MAVANI Krishna	17%	46%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
44	LO Preston	-	2%	15%	38%	33%	10%	1%
45	TANG Albert	5%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
46	MANIKTALA Suvir	28%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
47	SHEVCHENKO Kostiantyn	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
48	COPELAND Nigel	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
49	TANG Terry	6%	30%	41%	19%	4%	-	-
50	KNIBBE Nathan	53%	39%	7%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.