"The Big Blue" 3 Weapon Open & Youth 12

Senior Men's Foil

Sunday, August 28, 2022 at 9:00 AM

Forge Fencing Academy & Club - Durham, NC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GRASS Andrew E.	-	-	-	-	6%	39%	55%
2	HUTH Jacob	-	-	1%	8%	38%	53%
3	HUTH Mitchell	-	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
3	STANLEY Mason B.	-	-	-	-	5%	36%	59%
5	LI Matthew	-	1%	9%	33%	41%	16%
6	WECHSLER Jacob	-	1%	12%	36%	38%	13%	1%
7	OH SEAN	-	-	2%	15%	46%	37%
8	SICHITIU Alexander	-	1%	11%	35%	41%	12%
9	LIMA Kevin M.	-	-	-	-	5%	33%	62%
10	BERNABE Rafael	-	5%	23%	42%	25%	5%	-
11	BRUCE Roman	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-
12	KAUNITZ Emmanuel	-	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
13	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	1%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
14	EMENHEISER Conrad	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	1%
15	VIVEROS Antonio	6%	35%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
16	MUELLER Donn	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%	1%
17	LAUSI Patrick M.	-	-	4%	22%	44%	27%	2%
18	DAVIS Mitchell	5%	27%	41%	23%	4%	-
19	SLOUGH Sean	2%	22%	46%	25%	5%	-
20	GUEVARRA Gerhard V.	-	-	4%	21%	43%	29%	2%
21	BLONDEL Leo O.	-	1%	7%	23%	38%	26%	6%
22	MURRAY-GRAMLICH Robert	-	2%	22%	41%	28%	7%	-
23	GUEVARRA Gabriel (Gabe) W.	1%	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
24	HUTH Trevor	-	10%	34%	40%	15%	2%
25	SMOLICH Marat	9%	29%	36%	21%	5%	-
26	VIVEROS Evan	-	1%	15%	38%	35%	12%	1%
27	VIVEROS Oscar A.	3%	20%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
28	IFORD Andrew W.	2%	12%	27%	32%	20%	6%	1%
29	CAO Vincent	54%	39%	6%	-	-	-
30	CHAVES Matthew J.	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
31	KARNAVAS William	3%	17%	32%	31%	14%	3%	-
32	MOORHOUSE Emmett	16%	41%	33%	9%	-	-
33	ALAMI Faisal	11%	39%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
34	BURSON Owen	2%	15%	37%	35%	10%	1%	-
35	MILES Greyson	46%	47%	7%	-	-	-	-
36	LAWRENCE Addison	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-
37	KAPLAN Abe	42%	53%	5%	-	-	-	-
38	SMITH Sean	48%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-
39	NOLAN Tyler	47%	40%	12%	1%	-	-	-
39	HARWOOD Gray	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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