Garden State Trick or Re-Treat RYC/RJC

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, October 23, 2022 at 1:00 PM

Sportsplex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KLOTZ Isaiah	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	11%
2	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
3	LANG Dong Lin	-	-	-	4%	22%	46%	27%
3	JIMENEZ Lukas	-	-	1%	10%	35%	44%	10%
5	AHN Jun	-	-	-	-	6%	33%	60%
6	TRUBETSKI David	-	6%	26%	43%	22%	3%
7	AUGUSTINE Aaron A.	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
8	NICOLL James	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	3%	-
9	PO Oliver	-	-	-	4%	18%	44%	34%
10	LI Aaron	-	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
11	LIN James G.	-	-	-	2%	16%	42%	40%
12	GAO Payton	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
13	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	19%
14	BADLANI Dev	-	-	2%	12%	33%	40%	12%
15	POPE Alexander	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	6%	-
16	HUNTER Phillip	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%	-
17	DOCTOR Aidan L.	-	-	-	4%	23%	46%	27%
18	TSIMIKLIS Yanni	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
19	CULHANE Dechen	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%	-
20	NICOLL William	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	-
21	LIGOS Alex M.	-	2%	20%	42%	28%	6%	-
21	WANG Brian	4%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%	-
23	KOVACS Wyatt	-	3%	13%	30%	35%	17%	3%
23	MAGALONG William	25%	46%	24%	5%	< 1%	-	-
25	RNO Kyler	1%	11%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
26	PLASTARAS Trey	-	1%	11%	36%	42%	10%
27	SYOMICHEV Gleb A.	-	1%	11%	35%	38%	13%	1%
28	GALLUCCI Charles John	-	-	4%	18%	38%	32%	8%
29	MATSAKH Philip	-	-	6%	26%	43%	22%	4%
30	LIU Ryan	1%	6%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-
31	KALIPERSAD Neil A.	-	3%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%
32	JIN Dennis H.	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
33	HU Alan	-	7%	33%	40%	17%	3%	-
34	LEE Charles T	9%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
35	YU Stephen	7%	30%	41%	19%	3%	-
36	FRANK Amir	16%	37%	31%	13%	2%	-	-
37	NICOLSON William	34%	46%	18%	3%	-	-	-
38	SATTAR Dylan	23%	44%	26%	6%	-	-
39	WUN Jonathan	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
40	SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad	31%	52%	15%	2%	-	-	-
41	MUNDY Ezra	4%	18%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
42	REZA Farazi	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
43	GREENLEAF Paul	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
44	GRIGLAK Cody	30%	49%	18%	3%	-	-	-
45	CHANDRAMOHAN Aran	26%	45%	24%	5%	-	-	-
46	SZE Benjamin	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
47	SORSAIA John	24%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
48	ROHAN Brandt	48%	45%	7%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.