6th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC and RJC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, January 20, 2023 at 4:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Zhengyang (Allen)	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
2	WANG Joey	-	-	2%	13%	37%	37%	11%
3	MAXU Tiger	-	3%	18%	42%	33%	3%
3	AVETISIAN Michael	-	-	-	2%	11%	37%	50%
5	KIM Alexander	-	3%	16%	37%	33%	10%	1%
6	WU Johnny y.	3%	14%	30%	31%	17%	4%	-
7	RODOCANACHI Hector	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
8	WONG Baron	-	-	1%	7%	26%	44%	22%
9	RONG Gordon	-	-	1%	6%	21%	40%	33%
10	KIM Remington	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
11	LIANG Donny	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
12	MA Houhin	11%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
13	AUYEUNG Aedan Ho lam	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
14	FU Adrian	-	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
15	RONG Marcus	6%	22%	34%	26%	11%	2%	-
16	GADHVI Darius	5%	20%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-
17	DU Evan	1%	9%	24%	33%	24%	9%	1%
18	LEE Royce	-	4%	15%	30%	33%	16%	2%
19	DAI Steven (Chengwen)	1%	9%	30%	41%	18%	1%
20	MARZBANI Zehl	49%	38%	11%	1%	-	-
21	WANG Devin	4%	18%	32%	30%	14%	3%	-
22	WU Nathan	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	5%	-
23	AUSTIN Atlas	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	7%	1%
24	XUE Michael	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
25	CHEN Aiden	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	2%
26	FERRIERE Theo	24%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
27	MA kevin	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
28	OBERDERFER Viktor	2%	10%	25%	33%	22%	8%	1%
29	MOSLEY Wally	14%	37%	33%	13%	3%	-	-
30	LIM Marcus	25%	44%	25%	5%	1%	-	-
31	SHOURIE Neel	6%	23%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
32	SAMIMI Sina	-	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
33	ENG Kyler	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
34	KIM Evan	8%	26%	34%	23%	8%	1%	-
35	SHOURIE Seth	7%	34%	39%	18%	3%	-
36	WONG Alexander	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	6%	-
37	SCHWARTZMAN Ethan	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	-
38	JAMES Kaden	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
39	WANG Lucas	2%	13%	28%	32%	19%	6%	1%
40	DAYMAN Ryan	1%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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