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Richard F Oles Memorial Charm City Classic Div 1A ROC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Saturday, December 14, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Catonsville, MD - Catonsville, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ARCHER Kristjan	-	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
2	LIMA Kevin M.	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
3	GRISWOLD Abel B.	-	1%	11%	37%	39%	12%
3	MCCLAIN Bryce C.	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
5	JOSEPH Dominic (Dom)	-	-	3%	17%	39%	35%	7%
6	RITCHIE Luke W.	-	-	-	1%	9%	46%	44%
7	SERCK-HANSSEN Peter E.	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%
8	TIAN Aaron C.	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	12%	1%
9	POLANSKY Solomon	-	-	-	1%	11%	52%	36%
10	GORDON Jacob	-	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
11	PHILPOT Evan E.	-	5%	26%	45%	22%	2%
12	PAULSON Connor M.	-	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
13	GU Jeffrey	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	5%
14	BUERGIN Aidan	-	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
15	MCOWEN Peter D.	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
16	RINEHART Conner M.	2%	18%	40%	30%	9%	1%
17	O'BRIEN Jack K.	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
18	GISLER Benjamin B.	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
19	ZELTSER Lawrence M.	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
20	SELL Ethan J.	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	11%	1%
21	CRAYTON Royce S.	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
22	ROUNTREE Rob	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
23	LIU Eric Y.	-	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
24	ALLAMPALLAM Maanav V.	8%	36%	38%	15%	3%	-
25	DABNEY Justin	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%
26	MULLIGAN Timothy (Tim) D.	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
27	EVANS Aidan	2%	15%	36%	33%	12%	2%	-
28	HENSLEY Todd	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%	-
29	JUSTUS Benjamin	27%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
30	MCKEVITT Conner M.	2%	18%	37%	32%	10%	1%	-
31	SCHAEFER Joshua M.	11%	37%	37%	13%	2%	-
32	DRESSEL Jet	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
33	GAO William	5%	24%	37%	26%	7%	-	-
34	GRISWOLD Doug	3%	28%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
35	SHEA William	25%	44%	25%	5%	-	-	-
36	WANG Waley	26%	45%	25%	5%	-	-
37	ROSEBERRY Daniel	17%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-	-
38	YOUNG William	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-	-
39	ROGERS Windell	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-
40	HERNANDEZ Agustin	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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