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Y-10 Men's Foil

Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 4:30 PM

New Jersey City University - John Moore Athletic Center - Jersey City, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Mendy	-	-	1%	10%	39%	49%
2	CHANG Parker	-	-	2%	11%	38%	50%
3	SIU Max	-	2%	14%	33%	36%	15%
3	WU Wallace	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
5	XIAN Kevin	-	-	-	2%	19%	80%
6	HUYNH Matthew	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
7	ZHAI Derrick	-	-	-	6%	34%	59%
8	HU Michael	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	21%	3%
9	SHOU Raymond	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	9%
10	GUGALA Frank	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
11	KIAYIAS Anthony	2%	12%	30%	34%	19%	4%
12	LIN Ziyue	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
13	SHARMA Ari	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%
14	ZHONG Kingsley	1%	7%	26%	41%	22%	3%
15	HUYNH Kaleb	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
16	MONDESIR Chace	1%	6%	23%	38%	25%	7%	-
17	CAO Joshua	-	1%	11%	34%	43%	11%
18	XIA Vincent	-	4%	27%	44%	22%	1%
19	WU Max	2%	14%	30%	33%	17%	4%
20	WONG Blayke	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
21	HONG Thomas	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
22	AMR HOSSNY Adam	-	3%	24%	44%	26%	2%
23	SHEN Lucas	4%	22%	37%	28%	8%	1%
24	CAO Aaron	-	1%	5%	22%	40%	28%	4%
25	CHAE Emmett	2%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
26	WANG George	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
27	MOON Nolan	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
28	WU Connor	28%	44%	22%	5%	-	-
29	SAVIR Ethan	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	9%
30	TARDIFF Owen	-	7%	33%	42%	17%	1%
31	HUNTER khelile	22%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
32	SPEZAKIS Achilles	2%	15%	35%	34%	13%	1%
33	YUNG Zak	5%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
34	ZHANG Eric	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%	1%
35	CHONG Cooper	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
36	WANG Grant	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	3%
37	BETHELMY Daniel	10%	35%	38%	15%	2%	-
38	MAGUIRE Edward	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
39	SAWANT Sarthak	19%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
40	KOUAME Samuel	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
41	FANG Lionel	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
42	GENG Vincent	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
43	NAYAK Saideep	19%	52%	24%	4%	-	-
44	YANG Crescent	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
45	SIN Hwan	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
46	POLEBOYINA Aarav	58%	37%	5%	-	-	-
47	LI Andrew	10%	30%	34%	20%	5%	1%
48	LI Allen	1%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
49	LEUNG-AINSLEY Edward	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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