Sanctioned - MFA Y8, Y10, Y12, Senior (unrated only) - All foil event

Y-12 Mixed Foil

Sunday, June 16, 2024 at 12:00 PM

Marin Fencing Academy - San Rafael, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOM Avery	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
2	EVANS Desmond	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
3	CHAN Ella	-	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%
3	DING Sam	-	4%	18%	37%	33%	8%
5	GUO Joey	-	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
6	LI Aaron	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
7	HSU Rachel	-	-	1%	7%	29%	44%	18%
8	CHEN Ryker	-	-	1%	6%	24%	41%	27%
10	LI Jake	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	16%
11	LEONG Wilson Hua	-	1%	14%	42%	35%	8%
12	SAH Madeleine	-	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
13	LI Lief	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	24%	4%
14	JUE Lucas	-	2%	12%	28%	35%	20%	3%
15	CANTU Gabriel	-	3%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
16	YU Jinyuan	-	1%	7%	31%	45%	17%
17	KO Ian	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%	1%
18	KIM Parker	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	2%
19	ZHAN Catherine	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
20	MCLANAHAN Jasmine	-	9%	30%	36%	19%	5%	-
21	LIN Avery	1%	10%	29%	38%	19%	2%
22	THOTA Akira	2%	21%	40%	29%	8%	1%
23	YU Xintong	2%	23%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-
24	JOESUF Thea	2%	21%	48%	24%	4%	-
25	LUO Derren	54%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
26	ZHANG Katie Qingyun	-	2%	18%	41%	32%	7%	-
27	JIN Jada Y	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
28	JOESUF Aurielle	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	1%
29	LIU Mia	2%	15%	37%	34%	12%	1%
30	SRIDHARA Shaan	4%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%	-
31	WANG Ellen	9%	40%	38%	12%	1%	-
32	YU-TAN Claire	10%	34%	37%	17%	3%	-
33	GU Evan	9%	37%	38%	14%	2%	-	-
34	HONDA Emi	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
35	VIZCARRA Nathan	3%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%	-
35	LIN Dylan	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
37	SCHOR William	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
38	WANG Andrew	4%	27%	42%	22%	4%	-
39	YAN Aaron	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-	-
40	JUSON Julianne Lauren	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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