AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Y-10 Women's Épée

Friday, October 25, 2024 at 1:00 PM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KOU Cynthia	-	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
2	LI Anna	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	DU Chelsea	-	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	27%
3	YANG Nina	-	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-
5	REN Harper	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
6	SUN Joanna	-	-	5%	23%	44%	27%
7	YANG Emma	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
8	LI Allison	-	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	20%
9	YU Jiaming	-	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	21%
10	KWAK Olivia	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
11	YANG Arianna	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	12%
12	LI Celine	5%	27%	39%	23%	5%	-
13	PARK Rena	-	-	1%	9%	31%	43%	16%
14	CHONG Emma	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
15	WANG Olivia	2%	12%	28%	32%	19%	5%	1%
16	LIU Emma	-	2%	14%	34%	35%	13%	2%
17	SHIH Eva	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
18	WONG Isabelle	-	1%	8%	28%	39%	20%	3%
19	PIKUSOVA Alyssa	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	10%
20	WANG Phoebe	1%	10%	25%	33%	22%	7%	1%
21	LUO Xinyue	1%	11%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
22	YU Elise	-	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%
23	RONG Hilary	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
24	MENDIRATTA Olivia	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	3%
25	HE Elsa	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
26	SCHMIDT Alexis	7%	24%	34%	24%	9%	2%	-
27	KIM Toni	13%	50%	29%	7%	1%	-	-
28	JOE Everly	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
29	WU Angela	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	5%	-
30	SANTIAGO Mara	13%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
31	MARTYNOVA Veronica	21%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
32	LA Evelyn	65%	31%	4%	-	-	-	-
33	YOON Adeline	9%	42%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
34	LI zoey	1%	10%	25%	33%	22%	7%	1%
35	SHEN Isabella	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
36	ZHANG Alice	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-
37	DEFENSOR Ella	11%	31%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
38	LEE Katherine	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
39	YAO Astrid	22%	41%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
40	WON Sophia	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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