PHX Unrated and Open Mixed Epee

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 26, 2025 at 12:30 PM

The Phoenix Center - Poughkeepsie, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MANN Jake R.	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
2	CHEN Zhengyang (Allen)	-	1%	10%	30%	36%	18%	3%
3	KOEPPEL Levi E.	-	3%	13%	28%	32%	19%	5%
3	RIM Eugene	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
5	PAYNE Massimo	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	12%	1%
6	CHEN YiHeng	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	8%	1%
7	CHOI Paul S.	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	22%
8	SENERTH Ian J.	1%	6%	19%	32%	28%	12%	2%
9	CHEN Jun Ho	-	2%	11%	26%	33%	22%	6%
10	YU Samuel	-	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%	1%
11	SILVER Cameron	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
12	SCHROEDER III Robert	-	1%	7%	23%	38%	27%	4%
13	HELMY Richard	1%	15%	37%	33%	12%	2%	-
14	GREGORY Nova	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	2%
15	CHEN Edward	16%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
16	HEKMAT Sina R.	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	12%	2%
17	CHOU-ESTEBAN Pau	2%	16%	35%	32%	14%	2%	-
18	FENWICK Luke A.	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	7%
19	HILLEGEIST Ash	4%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
20	ZHANG Javen	10%	31%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
21	ROUSE Joseph (Joe) T.	-	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
22	KHOURY LEVY Nicholas	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
23	PARSONS Mischa	-	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%
24	CEREZO Cameron	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-	-
25	WHITELOCK James R.	2%	21%	38%	28%	10%	1%	-
26	DEBELLIS Davide	4%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
27	GORTI Aadya	46%	41%	12%	2%	-	-	-
28	MILES Ronald D.	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.