8th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC and RJC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Saturday, February 22, 2025 at 11:30 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Carlie	-	-	4%	24%	46%	26%
2	PASARA ZEGARRA Fátima	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
3	KOU Cynthia	-	-	2%	15%	41%	41%
3	VOO Evelyn	-	2%	17%	43%	31%	7%
5	ARNOLD Evangeline	-	-	3%	21%	46%	29%
6	LI Anna	-	-	4%	20%	42%	29%	4%
7	KIM Vivian	-	-	4%	30%	66%
9	YANG Nina	1%	17%	46%	32%	4%
10	YIP Allison	-	1%	6%	22%	40%	30%	2%
11	LI Allison	1%	12%	41%	40%	7%
12	MIAO Anthea	3%	18%	36%	31%	10%	1%	-
13	PASARA ZEGARRA Catalina	-	-	-	3%	17%	44%	35%
14	LI Wan-Tao	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	6%
15	SUN Joanna	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%	-
16	LEONG Andrea	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
17	CIOBANU Celine	-	-	3%	15%	36%	35%	11%
18	CHAI Serena	4%	22%	39%	27%	8%	1%
19	YOON Claire	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%	-
20	CHONG Emma	5%	28%	39%	22%	5%	-
21	KUSHNERENKO Maiia	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%	-
22	PARKE Jaime	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
23	BEATINGO Chelli	4%	27%	45%	20%	3%	-
24	SHIH Eva	11%	49%	32%	7%	-
25	SCHWARTZMAN Avital	63%	32%	5%	-	-
26	KEDAN Carmella	44%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
27	GROTH Lillian	18%	48%	28%	5%	-	-
28	WANG Phoebe	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
29	MANDAP Natalya	5%	22%	35%	26%	10%	1%	-
30	WANG Olivia	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%	-
31	KWAK Olivia	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	1%	-
32	KIM Toni	48%	39%	12%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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