Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, March 1, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOU Gaven	-	-	-	1%	10%	36%	53%
2	SUSANTO William	-	-	1%	10%	38%	50%
3	SIU Max	-	-	1%	8%	36%	56%
3	ROPER Griffin	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	13%	1%
5	LI Jayden	-	-	3%	16%	44%	37%
6	KUPERBERG Thomas	-	4%	20%	41%	29%	5%
7	ARORA Maximilian Andras A.	-	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
8	WU Alexander	1%	7%	28%	38%	22%	4%
9	NOVIKOV Yann	-	1%	13%	53%	33%
10	ZHANG Aaron	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
11	TIAN Andy	-	7%	31%	41%	19%	2%
12	HUANG Dalynn	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%
13	FANG Ryan	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
14	CONVERSO-PARSONS Alexander	1%	11%	33%	37%	15%	2%
15	SUN Nathan	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
16	CHEN Keegan	5%	26%	42%	23%	5%	-
17	CAO Joshua	-	-	1%	8%	32%	49%	11%
18	ZHONG Kingsley	-	4%	24%	42%	25%	4%
19	GENG Vincent	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%
20	ZHAO David	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
21	DENG Jonathan	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
22	HAN Jiaren	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	17%
23	HU Weijie	-	3%	19%	41%	31%	6%
24	GLODE Russell	-	-	7%	45%	47%
25	HU Michael	-	3%	21%	41%	29%	5%
26	TIAN Dylan	2%	16%	38%	33%	10%	1%
27	BHOSREKAR Som	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
28	ZHANG Eric	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
29	LECH Landon	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%
30	DAVE Neil	12%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
32	LEVKOVICH Avery	23%	45%	26%	6%	1%	-
33	MCCORMICK Chase	16%	44%	35%	5%	-
34	XU Jaden	23%	47%	27%	3%	-
35	WONG Maxwell	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%	-
36	BRADY David	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%
37	ZHENG Vincent	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
38	SUN Andrew	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
39	WU Yulen	2%	13%	34%	34%	14%	2%	-
40	SAVIR Ethan	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	1%
41	OH Dongha	-	-	< 1%	1%	10%	37%	52%
42	ZHAO Ethan	32%	47%	18%	3%	-	-
43	CONNELLY Malcolm	26%	47%	24%	3%	-
43	PELLERIN Liam	16%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
45	BLAIS julian	33%	45%	18%	3%	-	-
46	ANDERSON Kai	35%	48%	15%	2%	-	-
47	DUAN Desmond	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
48	SCHNEIDER Aiden	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-	-
49	TONG Andrew	27%	46%	22%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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