TFC Downtown RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, March 10, 2019 at 8:00 AM

San Jose, CA - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NG Eben S.	-	-	1%	4%	19%	41%	35%
2	CHIRASHNYA Adam	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	38%
3	LO Conrad	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
3	KANG Anthony Jaegu	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	22%
5	DETERING Julian	-	4%	22%	40%	28%	6%
6	BAO Aaron	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
7	CORTRIGHT Joshua C.	-	4%	23%	43%	26%	4%
7	BAEK David	-	2%	15%	38%	34%	10%
9	KHER Roan	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	10%
10	WANG Ethan	1%	8%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
11	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
12	MASCARI DUMONT Louis	-	2%	15%	40%	35%	8%
13	SMITH Grant D.	-	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
14	ZHANG Jiening G.	-	1%	6%	20%	36%	29%	8%
15	CHIRASHNYA Daniel	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
16	CHENG Jonathan	-	7%	33%	39%	18%	3%
17	KIM Ryan Y.	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	16%	1%
18	CHIN Ryan	2%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
19	TUAN Evan	3%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
20	WU Lucas	-	-	3%	19%	43%	34%
21	LO Preston	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	-
22	NG Micah	2%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%	-
23	DE LA FUENTE Ian	-	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	4%
24	TEH Ryan	12%	43%	35%	10%	1%	-
25	WYMAN Julian	-	1%	13%	36%	38%	13%
25	VALOUEV Aleksey	12%	54%	28%	5%	-	-
27	ZUO Ethan	28%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
28	CORTRIGHT Skipper (Matthew)	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	13%	1%
29	HUSSAIN Ibrahim	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%	-
30	LI Jett	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	-
31	FRANC Geoffrey C.	30%	47%	19%	3%	-	-
32	RASMUSSEN Sage	2%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%
33	CHEN Justin K.	1%	14%	34%	32%	15%	3%	-
34	LEVY Jacob	10%	30%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
35	FANG Jaden	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
36	CHEN Evan	8%	31%	39%	18%	3%	-
37	SUBRAMANIAM Akilesh	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%	1%
38	AGRAWAL Niki	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
39	HUSSAIN Ismail A.	2%	20%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
40	CHU Colin	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-
41	SAH Steven	16%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
42	MCCORMACK WILCOX Braeden	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-
43	ZHANG Luke	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
44	MIN Lucas	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-
45	CARVAJAL Josmar	1%	9%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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