Fairfax Challenge ROC(DV1A, DV2, VET), RJCC, RYC & PARA

Y-14 Women's Épée

Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BURT Emmalyne Grace	-	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
2	DESAI Ela	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
3	ZHANG Yuchen A.	-	2%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
3	GOLIYAD Lisa	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
5	LI Caroline	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
6	OLELE Ifechi	-	-	-	6%	39%	54%
7	LI Xier	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
8	KALI Aiana	15%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
9	KROPP Anne (Charlie)	-	-	-	1%	6%	30%	64%
10	SILVA Hailey	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
11	WU Madisen	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	2%
12	NAPOLI Eleanor	4%	22%	42%	28%	5%	-
13	MEGGERS Arya	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
14	MAEDJE Abigail	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%	1%
15	NOLAN Sophia	2%	17%	41%	33%	7%	-
16	ZHU Danielle Jade	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
17	LIN Cynthia	-	-	2%	9%	28%	40%	21%
18	AXELROD Charlotte	-	2%	13%	31%	33%	16%	3%
19	YOUNG Penelope	3%	15%	34%	32%	14%	2%	-
20	VENKATESAN Harshitha	-	-	3%	20%	53%	23%
21	WRIGHT Madison	-	-	4%	17%	38%	35%	6%
22	SHIN Jamie	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%	-
23	D'ANGELO Olivia	-	3%	14%	33%	34%	14%	1%
24	CHAN Faith Sum Yin	23%	45%	27%	6%	-	-
25	IYENGAR Sthuthi	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-	-
26	RAGSDALE Lillian	3%	31%	39%	21%	5%	1%	-
27	MARYAHIN Sophie	9%	37%	37%	15%	3%	-	-
28	HOWARD Brielle	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
29	MEHMETOGLU Mina	28%	45%	23%	4%	-	-
30	MORET Teagan	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
31	PORTER Cora	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
32	YANAGIDA Coco	1%	13%	39%	35%	10%	1%	-
33	ZHANG Sophia	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
34	KIM Kaylin	74%	23%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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