Fairfax Challenge ROC(DV1A, DV2, VET), RJCC, RYC & PARA

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TUCKER ALFONSO Javier - - - 1% 7% 32% 60%
2 HAN Sam - - 4% 21% 44% 31%
3 DE LA CRUZ Jean Carlos - - - 3% 23% 74%
3 YIN Chujun 3% 16% 37% 34% 10%
5 ZHU Aaron - 1% 8% 26% 40% 25%
6 ALEXANDER Jacksen 1% 7% 22% 33% 26% 10% 1%
7 WHITE Myles - - 3% 17% 41% 39%
8 MEGGERS Samuel 1% 8% 29% 41% 20% 2%
9 KE Sebastian 1% 8% 29% 40% 20% 2%
10 GLOGOWSKI Konrad - - 4% 15% 31% 35% 15%
11 CUMMINGS Owen 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
12 JONES Jackson - 2% 10% 25% 34% 23% 6%
13 LEE DoWon 1% 6% 25% 42% 26%
14 JEONG Arisu - 2% 10% 31% 40% 16%
15 YANG Alex 7% 29% 39% 21% 4%
16 MARKOWITZ Sam 21% 41% 29% 8% 1%
17 SUBRAMANIAM Sahil - 4% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3%
18 O'HARROW Tristan C. - - 4% 19% 40% 32% 5%
19 LEHNER Brian - 4% 16% 31% 31% 15% 2%
20 MUMMIDI Rishi - 1% 7% 28% 45% 20%
21 LEECH Braedan 1% 11% 32% 37% 16% 2%
22 PALAMARCHUK Andriy - - 4% 16% 34% 34% 12%
23 NALLICHERI Ayaan 1% 7% 21% 33% 26% 11% 2%
24 MCCLEAN III Walter F. - 1% 7% 21% 33% 28% 9%
25 DILDA Griffin 3% 16% 33% 32% 14% 2%
26 PETROW Zoryan - - 2% 15% 44% 38%
27 KIM Zac 17% 40% 31% 10% 1% -
28 DELONG Joshua 2% 11% 27% 32% 20% 6% 1%
29 ADDYSON Aidan 11% 34% 37% 16% 3%
30 CHEN YiHeng - - 3% 13% 33% 36% 15%
31 SALLAI Abel 13% 34% 34% 15% 3% -
32 KOOB Julian 33% 43% 20% 4% - -
33 CHEMEZOV Trent - 1% 4% 18% 35% 32% 10%
34 CHA Patrick 1% 6% 21% 35% 29% 9%
35 WATERS Nathaniel 15% 35% 32% 14% 3% -
36 HU Alexander W. 1% 7% 25% 37% 24% 6% -
37 CHANEY Charles 2% 14% 31% 33% 16% 3%
38 WU Shaochi 2% 13% 34% 36% 13% 2%
39 MOORE Alexander 2% 14% 31% 33% 17% 3%
40 NOLAN Tyler 2% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% 1%
41 CUELLAR Markus 3% 17% 33% 31% 14% 2%
41 RAMEY Daylon 9% 30% 36% 19% 5% 1% -
43 LORENZ Nathan 22% 45% 26% 6% 1% - -
44 PERILLO Edoardo Filippo Mihai - - 2% 11% 29% 38% 20%
45 ZHOU alex 1% 7% 20% 31% 27% 12% 2%
46 O'BRIEN Timothy S. - 2% 11% 27% 33% 21% 5%
46 BENUCCI Vincent 11% 32% 35% 18% 4% -
48 WANG Kaiyan 1% 14% 36% 35% 12% 1%
49 MARSH Alex 1% 7% 22% 33% 26% 10% 1%
50 ESPINAL DAPIC Nicolas 1% 8% 23% 35% 26% 7%
51 KOGAN Yelisey L. 5% 21% 36% 28% 10% 1%
52 LIN Haley 3% 18% 38% 31% 10% 1%
53 CHAN Kyle Si Tin - 4% 16% 31% 31% 15% 3%
54 CARCATERRA Theodore 13% 34% 33% 15% 3% - -
55 SLOTER Lewis E. 2% 14% 32% 33% 16% 3% -
56 KLINKENBERG Patrick 8% 27% 34% 22% 8% 1% -
57 NGUYEN Trung 10% 36% 37% 15% 2% -
58 CANDELARIA Armando 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 4%
59 RUSSELL Tallis 6% 26% 40% 23% 5% -
60 ALLEN Davis 3% 16% 33% 31% 14% 3% -
61 SCHULMAN Max 19% 37% 29% 12% 3% - -
63 KIRSCH Adam J. 4% 19% 33% 28% 13% 3% -
64 DESVARIEUX Hensley 6% 25% 36% 24% 8% 1%
65 JHUNJHUNWALA Milan 7% 25% 36% 24% 8% 1% -
66 ABU-AJAJ Mohamed 14% 35% 33% 15% 3% -
67 MCCABE Kian 22% 42% 28% 7% 1% -
69 HVIDING Ketil 1% 9% 26% 36% 23% 5%
70 DAVIS Jack 12% 32% 34% 17% 5% 1% -
71 LACHER Daniel 14% 34% 32% 15% 4% - -
72 GREINER Andreas 2% 19% 35% 29% 12% 2% -
73 ROEDER John 2% 13% 33% 34% 15% 3% -
74 STEVENS Daniel L. 4% 18% 32% 29% 13% 3% -
75 SIMS Martin L. 13% 38% 34% 13% 2% -
76 MASSIE Jay 7% 26% 36% 23% 7% 1%
77 TAYLOR Robert 6% 25% 37% 25% 7% 1% -
78 TARDIFF Seth 47% 40% 11% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.