8th Annual Dr. Gene Packer Open Epee @ Freehold Fencing

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, August 10, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Freehold Fencing Academy - Freehold, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Leonardo	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
2	TABLEMAN Doug S.	-	-	-	3%	18%	45%	33%
3	WICAS Graham E.	-	-	-	5%	33%	62%
3	PETERS Nathan M.	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
5	SERAFIN Ben	-	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	12%
6	WU Matthew	7%	32%	39%	18%	3%	< 1%	-
7	KOEPPEL Levi E.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
8	RVACHEV Michael	3%	25%	41%	24%	6%	1%	-
9	TATE William Isom	-	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
10	SVERDLOV Seth	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
11	ANAFI Ari	3%	17%	34%	32%	13%	2%
12	SHREM Samuel G.	-	1%	12%	45%	37%	6%
13	RIM Eugene	1%	12%	55%	28%	4%	-
14	LIOU Solomon	-	-	8%	40%	43%	9%
15	WU Michelle	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
16	LIN Qianzhong	45%	48%	7%	-	-	-
17	ZHAO Kuncheng	-	7%	25%	38%	25%	5%
18	ANDERSON Riley	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
19	HU Robert J.	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
20	KRISHNAN Skanda	-	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	2%
21	CHEN Allen	-	3%	18%	36%	30%	12%	2%
22	LIU Adam	-	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
23	MATTO Edward J.	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	19%	4%
24	BASSINDER Jake	-	-	1%	5%	25%	46%	24%
25	SHAFAIE Ali	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
26	BUACHIE Aaron	3%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%
27	EVANS Joseph	19%	39%	30%	10%	2%	-
28	CHOI Paul S.	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	6%
29	LI Morgan	-	6%	24%	39%	24%	6%	-
30	LUM-DEBONO Adam	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-
31	COETZEE Frans M.	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
32	MARRAN John	40%	52%	8%	-	-	-
33	WU Jerry	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
34	CHEN Raymond	4%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
35	WU Pingchien	32%	47%	18%	3%	-	-	-
36	LIU Kun	4%	24%	41%	25%	6%	1%	-
37	LEE Kevin	33%	48%	17%	2%	-	-	-
38	SHABALIN Nikita	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
39	PONDACO Frankee	58%	36%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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