The Big Blue Annual 3 Weapon Open/Women's/Youth + Div 3 Saber

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, August 23, 2025 at 3:00 PM

Forge Fencing Academy & Club - Durham, NC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JIN Daniel	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
2	BROWN Joshua (Josh) A.	-	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
3	RUSSELL James	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
3	DAVIS Andrew	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
5	AMOROSO John	-	-	-	1%	17%	81%
6	ROBERTS Phoenix	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
7	WEIKEL Joel	-	5%	38%	43%	14%	-
8	BROWN Amanda	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	11%
9	HAN Sam	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
10	MARX Leslie M.	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
11	MALONE Jacob	-	2%	13%	34%	39%	12%
12	KERKHOF Peter L.	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	7%
13	DILDA Griffin	5%	27%	45%	20%	3%	-
14	WHITE Taylor	-	2%	17%	44%	36%	2%
15	DONNELLY Enzo	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%	1%
16	NANAYAKKARA Damin	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
17	AZAD Ava	2%	19%	36%	29%	12%	2%	-
18	STEPANIAN George	7%	36%	39%	15%	2%	-
19	MEIER Nicholas M.	4%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%
20	DUNSEATH Lauren M.	-	2%	25%	49%	22%	2%
21	BENUCCI Vincent	1%	30%	43%	22%	4%	-
22	SHELLY Emery	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	19%	2%
23	JONES Jackson	-	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
24	RODACHY Jeffrey M.	-	2%	13%	39%	37%	9%
25	CARCATERRA Theodore	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
26	RAGSDALE Lillian	56%	37%	7%	-	-	-
27	KARNAVAS William	-	3%	17%	36%	34%	10%
28	NOLAN Sophia	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
29	VERGARA Jace Riley	31%	47%	20%	2%	-	-
30	CUTHBERTSON Dax	18%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
31	GEISSLER Maximilian	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
32	NANAYAKKARA Sanuthi	25%	65%	9%	-	-	-
33	JULIEN Erica	38%	47%	13%	1%	-	-
34	STEELE Jeff	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	-
35	HARRIS Matthew T.	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
36	LANIER Cody	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
37	HARRIS Lynn B.	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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