Star Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Danvers Indoor Sports - DANVERS, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WANG Mendy	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
2	ZHAI Derrick	-	-	-	-	2%	26%	72%
3	SONG Enoch	-	-	4%	21%	47%	28%
3	WU Wallace	-	-	-	1%	14%	85%
5	QU Richard	-	-	3%	31%	65%
6	HU Michael	-	-	2%	18%	47%	33%
7	ROPER Griffin	-	4%	18%	34%	32%	11%
8	ZHANG Eric	-	3%	16%	41%	38%	3%
9	HUYNH Matthew	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	62%
10	ZHANG Aaron	-	-	1%	7%	30%	51%	11%
11	ZHAO David	-	3%	13%	31%	35%	17%	2%
12	HUYNH Kaleb	-	3%	26%	56%	16%
13	XIA Vincent	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	5%
14	TIAN Andy	2%	17%	39%	34%	8%
15	ZHONG Kingsley	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
16	WU Yulen	2%	15%	40%	34%	10%	1%
17	BRADY David	2%	14%	36%	37%	12%	-
18	HAN Jiaren	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
20	SHARMA Ari	9%	33%	39%	17%	2%
21	LI Andrew	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	6%
22	ZHENG Vincent	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
23	XIONG Jeffrey	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%	-
24	PELLERIN Liam	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
25	DAVE Neil	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
26	CHEN Keegan	27%	44%	24%	5%	-
27	XIA Wenhao	1%	10%	35%	39%	14%	1%
28	GENG Vincent	2%	21%	53%	22%	2%
29	LU Ethan	6%	29%	41%	21%	4%	-
30	TARDIFF Owen	4%	21%	35%	28%	10%	2%	-
31	DENG Jonathan	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%
32	LIU KUNDE	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
33	WANG Grant	2%	12%	31%	36%	18%	3%	-
34	LIU Brady	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
35	LI Ethan	42%	48%	9%	-	-
36	CRIUCOV Daniel	39%	45%	15%	2%	-	-
37	BHOSREKAR Som	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
38	HU Hudson	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
40	LIU KELVIN	22%	47%	25%	5%	-	-
41	YANG Mark	33%	50%	16%	1%	-
42	CUI Jason	38%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
43	SAVIR Ethan	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
44	RENSHAW Hunter	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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