The Cascade Clash SYC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Friday, September 12, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ABUELFUTUH Sama	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	82%
2	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	-	2%	11%	29%	39%	19%
3	NGUYEN Renee	-	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	19%
3	CHI Zoe	-	-	3%	15%	38%	37%	7%
5	XIONG Alice	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	4%
6	ZHAO Isabel	-	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
7	VIJAY Vaishnavi	-	1%	7%	24%	40%	26%	3%
8	LEE Kaitlyn	-	3%	16%	36%	32%	12%	1%
9	SONG Sunny	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	71%
10	WANG Chantal	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
11	YOUN Kylie	-	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
12	GIERAT-KATZ Izabella	-	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	18%
13	LI Ariel	2%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%	-
14	CHOI Lydia	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
15	ARNOLD Evangeline	1%	13%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
16	MOHAN Riya	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	16%
17	SUN Joanna	1%	6%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
18	SUN Milly	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	17%	2%
19	WANG Olivia	-	2%	10%	29%	38%	20%	1%
20	KARTHIK Diya	-	5%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
21	DU Chloe	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	11%	2%
22	MAENG Gloria	-	3%	12%	29%	34%	18%	3%
23	CHEN Stephanie	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%	1%
24	WANG Yvonne	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
25	DAI Sophie	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
26	LI Katherine	5%	23%	36%	25%	9%	1%	-
27	SRIVASTAVA Aria	48%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
28	VINLUAN Emma	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
29	YANG Arianna	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
30	DU Chelsea	4%	28%	40%	22%	5%	1%	-
31	TRIVULCE Scarlett	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%	-
32	WANG Kercedes Ye	44%	42%	13%	2%	-	-	-
33	PARKE Jaime	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
34	YOON Claire	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
35	HALLENBECK Felicity	5%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
36	DEJOY Leilah	8%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
37	ZHANG Carina	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
38	PAN Zoe	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
39	BERESTOVITSKY Eva	14%	41%	32%	10%	2%	-	-
40	LIU Emma	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
41	REN Harper	5%	22%	36%	26%	10%	2%	-
42	MIXON Ivory	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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