GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, November 8, 2025 at 8:00 AM

MSA Fieldhouse - GRAND RAPIDS, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JONES Reilly	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	62%
2	KIM Gene	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
3	WILLIAMS Logan	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
3	CHEN Isaac Zhi	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	2%
5	PENG Ethan	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	< 1%
6	PECKENS Tyler	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
7	ROWLAND Marsden	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
8	KOENIGSKNECHT Julian	-	3%	17%	43%	31%	6%
9	CURTY Jack	-	1%	9%	35%	42%	13%
10	STREETER Oliver	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
11	HURLEY Michael	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
12	BOSS Evan	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	9%
13	LARSON Vaughn	3%	17%	36%	32%	12%	1%
14	HUANG Max	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
15	DRAWZ Chase	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	12%	1%
16	SHAFFER Tyler	10%	36%	39%	14%	2%	-
17	BAGDONAS Olivier	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
18	HALL Gabriel	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%
19	ELLIS, IV Floyd	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
20	JERDEE Colton	6%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-
21	BROUGHAM Brice	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
22	LIU-XUE Shuliang	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
23	ASIALA Niilo	17%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
24	YATES Graeme	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	5%
25	ULMAN Nathan	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%
26	TICHENOR Abreham	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
27	GOODMAN Liam	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
28	FORTUNA Chase	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
29	SEABLOOM Jack	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	5%	-
30	WILTSE Alexander	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
31	SANFORD Wesley	18%	43%	31%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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