MFA Y8, Y10, Y12, Div2 - All foil mixed events

Y-12 Mixed Foil

Sunday, November 16, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Marin Fencing Academy - San Rafael, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUN Lucas	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
2	ZHANG Katie Q.	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
3	LAI Olivia	1%	7%	28%	39%	21%	4%
3	SITU Baiqin	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
5	HO Kasper	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
6	ZHU Claire	-	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	17%
7	LIN Zhengxuan	1%	5%	20%	35%	29%	9%
8	YANG Jaron	-	4%	18%	39%	30%	8%	-
9	LIN Tiffany	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
10	WONG Sebastian	2%	17%	41%	31%	8%	-	-
11	SOUSA Lauren	13%	41%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
12	ZHONG Dexter	-	4%	21%	40%	27%	7%	-
13	GU Alexandra	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
14	LUO Derren	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-	-
15	JACOBE Jakyn	36%	41%	18%	4%	-	-
16	ZHAI Muyan	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	4%
17	GEMBALA Theodore	18%	43%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
18	PARK Thomas	-	2%	10%	28%	37%	21%	3%
19	BROME Zachary	-	4%	19%	36%	29%	9%	1%
20	ZENG Cayden	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
21	KAYAL Alexander	13%	36%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
22	LEE Harry	4%	20%	35%	29%	10%	2%	-
23	MURPHY Ava	-	8%	29%	36%	21%	5%	1%
24	LIN Cyrus	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
25	SIN Chad	11%	39%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
26	HOVAGHIMIAN Atticus	-	1%	11%	32%	37%	17%	2%
27	COOK Owen	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
28	SHUM KEIRA	5%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-	-
29	KALIN Trysten	-	< 1%	2%	15%	39%	38%	6%
30	TANG Ming-Hao (Audrey)	6%	34%	38%	18%	4%	-
31	MAK Avery	2%	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
32	WONG Kingston	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-	-
33	HSU Courtney	20%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
34	MAO Jacob	< 1%	-	-	3%	20%	47%	30%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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