Cobra Challenge SYC/RCC

Y-10 Women's Épée

Sunday, November 30, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Meadowlands Expo Center - Secaucus, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHANEY Evelyn	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
2	WANG Hailie	-	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	14%
3	ZHAO Crystal	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	24%	6%
3	HONG Catherine	-	-	2%	13%	33%	38%	14%
5	FAYEZ Malika	-	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
6	ZHAO Rachel	-	1%	5%	19%	34%	30%	10%
7	LIU Brinley	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
8	MAO Faith	-	5%	22%	37%	26%	8%	1%
9	LIU sienna	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	3%
10	DOROSHKEVICH Maria	1%	7%	25%	35%	24%	7%	1%
11	CHUNG Yenna	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
12	GROMOVA Vlada	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
13	VILLER Gabriella	-	4%	15%	31%	32%	15%	2%
14	GORDON Winter	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
15	STAFFORD Thylane	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
16	LEE Zerah	9%	28%	35%	21%	7%	1%	-
17	ERATA Selena	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
18	LIOU Skylar	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
19	SALIBA Madison	1%	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	1%
20	LEE Gloria	-	2%	9%	25%	34%	24%	6%
21	CHOI Noah	-	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	3%
22	XIANG Kellina	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
23	MU Jasmine	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
24	YOU Nina	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	25%	7%
25	URICHECK Julianna	-	-	2%	9%	27%	40%	23%
26	BIRZ Vivi	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
27	HARSAR Cleo	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
28	JIANG Christina	3%	15%	30%	31%	17%	4%	-
29	ZHANG Grace	18%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
30	ALVAREZ Megan	6%	26%	36%	23%	8%	1%	-
31	SHANG Adeline	11%	40%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
32	PALAMARCHUK Mia	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
33	ANDERLE Lydia	15%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-
34	MENG Yinuo	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	9%	1%
35	LIAN Cailey	-	4%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%
36	WONG Dorothy	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
37	YU Catherine	2%	16%	37%	31%	11%	1%
38	LUK-SOLARZ Madison	9%	28%	34%	21%	7%	1%	-
39	LIN Elina	4%	18%	32%	30%	14%	3%	-
40	KIM Eila	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
41	YOON Michelle	6%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
42	MASKIN Anna	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
43	LUO MAOMAO	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
44	GROMOVA Eva	19%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
44	ABDELFATAH Laila	35%	41%	19%	4%	1%	-	-
46	TATINI Aria	55%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
47	YOUN Caila	34%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
48	BOUTSIKARIS Priya	4%	17%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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