Treasure Chest RYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, January 19, 2019 at 9:00 AM

San Francisco, CA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DUONG Enoch	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
2	LATIF IMRAN ZAKARIYYA	-	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
3	VAN EIKEMA HOMMES Neil B.	-	1%	7%	22%	37%	26%	7%
3	POPOVICI Andrew E.	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
5	AU Marcus J.	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	23%
6	LIU Felix	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	10%
7	ZIEBART Jeremy J.	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
8	COLLINS Damase	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	4%
9	LOGUE Ethan D.	-	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	29%
10	KIM Benjamin I.	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
11	SIVAGAR Leo	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
12	LIU Kirk D.	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%	-
13	KATZ Matheo	15%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
14	GARRETT Samuel	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
15	WRIGHT Christopher	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
16	STENNIS Brendan	26%	47%	22%	4%	-	-
17	LUCERO-OLSON Aydin	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
18	ALVAREZ Ian T.	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
19	PARK Elliot	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
20	KENNY Oliver R.	-	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%
21	HUSSAIN Kamran	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%	-
22	MILEY Nick N.	2%	16%	40%	31%	9%	1%
23	WEAVER Neil	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	12%
24	BAGCHI Aritra	-	7%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
25	LOWE-THORPE Tyler	1%	17%	35%	30%	13%	3%	-
26	LIU Andrew	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
27	ZHANG Alec	1%	6%	20%	33%	28%	12%	2%
28	KUO Elvin	3%	26%	40%	24%	6%	1%	-
29	LAU Matthew	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	-
30	BRINEN-STOUT Jared P.	2%	11%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
31	MING Nathan	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	2%
32	BHARGAV Siddharth	10%	37%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
33	ZANKOWSKI Brendan	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
35	HASAN Raamis	1%	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
36	FINE Gabriel C.	8%	28%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
37	YALAMANCHALI Pranay	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
38	MALEEV Georgy	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
39	QUIROGA Kyle	70%	26%	4%	-	-	-	-
40	AYER Ishaan	72%	24%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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