Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TANG Luke 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 61% 21%
2 ZHANG jonathan 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 42%
3 KROPP Wesley 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 72%
3 NOOL Aaron 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 41% 10%
5 CHEN Aiden 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 28%
6 MADRIGAL SALVAT Guillermo 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 13%
7 KUYKENDALL Logan 100% 99% 90% 66% 32% 8% 1%
9 MASKIN Mikhail 100% 100% 100% 97% 76% 30%
10 CHUNG Daehyun Daniel 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 47% 12%
11 KIM Siwoo 100% 100% 97% 81% 47% 14% 1%
12 ZHOU Luke 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 19%
13 MAXWELL Taiga 100% 98% 87% 59% 26% 6% -
14 LAI Jaxon 100% 100% 97% 82% 48% 16% 2%
15 DAI Jason 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 23% 4%
16 LEE Asher 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 27% 5%
17 JIN Noah 100% 100% 98% 88% 60% 24% 4%
18 LEE Taeryum 100% 100% 93% 70% 34% 9% 1%
19 GAO Guanyi (Jonathan) 100% 99% 92% 64% 22%
20 ZHENG Jasper 100% 100% 100% 95% 66% 21%
21 FANG Charlie 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 46% 12%
22 KIM Ian 100% 100% 99% 91% 54% 13%
23 KUYKENDALL Lucas 100% 98% 85% 54% 21% 4% -
25 GORE Noah 100% 92% 61% 24% 5% - -
26 YAO Irvine 100% 100% 94% 74% 39% 11% 1%
27 FEELY Samuel 100% 99% 91% 65% 29% 6% -
28 HU Charles 100% 100% 98% 84% 53% 20% 3%
29 YOU Emmanuel 100% 92% 65% 30% 8% 1% -
30 VINCENT-GRAVENHISE Malcolm 100% 99% 91% 68% 34% 9% 1%
31 ZHAO Brandon 100% 100% 92% 66% 30% 8% 1%
32 MAURAIS JP 100% 100% 99% 89% 62% 23% 2%
33 GARIKIPATI Tharan 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 50% 14%
34 ZHANG Renkui 100% 95% 70% 30% 5%
35 XU Yunfei(Dorian) 100% 98% 84% 48% 12%
36 ZHOU Silvan 100% 96% 71% 30% 5%
37 FERNANDEZ ZAMBRANA Rafael Lucas 100% 97% 82% 48% 17% 3% -
38 CHONG Nikolai 100% 53% 11% 1% - -
39 SHABBIR Mohammad Amaan 100% 98% 86% 54% 19% 3% -
40 TRIVULCE Ethan 100% 97% 76% 39% 11% 2% -
41 LEE Derek 100% 99% 85% 52% 19% 4% -
42 JIANG Adam 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 20% 3%
43 SHULL Matthias 100% 95% 70% 31% 8% 1% -
44 KAZA Avyaan 100% 90% 58% 22% 4% - -
45 GEIDE Silas 100% 72% 29% 6% 1% - -
46 SOTO Lucas 100% 95% 71% 32% 8% 1% -
47 ZUNIGA Wyatt 100% 87% 50% 16% 3% - -
48 SAFAI Bardia 100% 93% 57% 13% 1% -
49 LEONARDIS Jordan 100% 84% 49% 17% 4% - -
50 GONZALEZ-SOTO Wilson 100% 58% 17% 2% -
51 MORET Declan 100% 60% 19% 3% - - -
52 AKULICH Adam 100% 54% 15% 2% - - -
53 WENDLING Andrew 100% 84% 38% 6% - -
54 DOUGLAS James 100% 20% 2% - - - -
54 ZUNIGA Finn 100% 71% 29% 6% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.