Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div I-A Men's Épée

Friday, January 2, 2026 at 1:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 SVERDLOV Seth - 1% 6% 23% 41% 29%
2 SERAFIN Ben - - - 2% 17% 55% 27%
3 NORTH Alexander M. - - 3% 17% 41% 37%
3 MAO Benjamin - - 8% 51% 40%
5 YANG Gary - 1% 4% 16% 33% 33% 13%
6 TUCKER ALFONSO Javier - - 1% 9% 36% 53%
7 WANG Tony 1% 6% 23% 36% 26% 7% -
8 CULPEPPER John (JR) R. - - - - 4% 28% 68%
9 CHO Tyler H. - - - - 3% 27% 70%
10 DELONG Joshua 6% 23% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
11 CHO Alex 2% 12% 28% 32% 19% 6% 1%
12 XIE Brandon 1% 10% 28% 36% 21% 4%
13 KIM Gene 1% 11% 31% 37% 17% 2%
14 TOWNSHEND Connor 13% 51% 32% 3% -
15 ADDYSON Aidan - 6% 31% 41% 19% 3% -
16 CARTER Austin L. - - 1% 7% 29% 49% 14%
17 LIOU Solomon - - - 2% 14% 43% 42%
18 HRAPSKY Ryan J. - - - - 5% 29% 65%
19 KE Sebastian 1% 9% 25% 34% 24% 7% -
20 HU Robert J. - 2% 10% 29% 39% 20%
21 YI Kyle - - 8% 48% 43%
22 YI Nathan 2% 15% 33% 33% 15% 2%
23 CHRISTY Peter C. - 1% 8% 24% 36% 25% 5%
24 CLICK Tristan - 1% 5% 20% 39% 31% 5%
24 MONTESI Eric - - 4% 17% 38% 34% 7%
26 COHEN Jared E. - 3% 14% 33% 35% 14%
27 ALI Farhan - 5% 20% 37% 29% 8%
28 TIRRELL Justin J. - - 5% 22% 41% 28% 4%
29 DJONOUMA Toyohm 1% 6% 22% 37% 28% 6%
30 MARTIN Mason - 1% 6% 22% 42% 30%
31 CHANEY Charles 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 6% -
32 PENG Yue - 3% 13% 29% 33% 18% 4%
33 TABLEMAN Doug S. - - - 1% 7% 35% 57%
34 KONG Brandon 1% 11% 33% 39% 15% 1% -
35 ZUCKER Noah L. - - - - 5% 33% 62%
36 RUSSELL James - 1% 7% 29% 41% 19% 3%
37 AYOTTE James 1% 6% 23% 38% 27% 6%
38 NALLICHERI Ayaan 1% 10% 30% 37% 19% 3% -
38 LEE Benjamin 22% 41% 27% 9% 1% -
40 MUMMIDI Rishi 1% 5% 16% 30% 30% 15% 3%
41 CHENH Justin - 2% 13% 37% 39% 8% -
42 CHAN Kyle Si Tin 2% 12% 28% 33% 19% 5% 1%
43 LEE Aiden 2% 15% 35% 33% 13% 1%
44 MARISI Gabriel 13% 34% 34% 16% 3% -
45 ZHAO Zidong 1% 6% 22% 36% 27% 8%
46 KOGAN Yelisey L. 33% 42% 20% 4% - -
47 CANDELARIA Armando 3% 17% 35% 31% 12% 2% -
48 SWENSON Keane J. - - 1% 7% 30% 46% 17%
49 WATERS Nathaniel - 6% 30% 41% 19% 3% -
50 HOWARD Jackson - 4% 17% 35% 32% 11% 1%
51 LIU Jeremiah W. 2% 14% 36% 33% 13% 2%
52 HAN Sam - 1% 5% 18% 34% 32% 11%
54 CHU Brandon A. 1% 9% 24% 33% 24% 9% 1%
55 SNYDER IV William B. - - - < 1% 5% 40% 55%
56 ZHU Aaron 9% 31% 36% 19% 4% -
57 KIM Joshua 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
58 NG Nico 4% 19% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
59 SHELLY Emery 8% 27% 34% 22% 8% 1% -
60 BROSNAN Solomon 13% 36% 34% 14% 3% - -
61 PARKER Isaiah 1% 9% 28% 38% 21% 3%
62 RAMEY Daylon 8% 32% 37% 18% 4% - -
63 WANG Marcus 3% 17% 32% 30% 14% 3% -
64 MEGGERS Samuel 1% 12% 31% 35% 18% 3% -
65 PAN Colin 1% 8% 25% 37% 24% 6%
66 ROBERTS Phoenix 1% 8% 27% 38% 22% 4% -
67 DILDA Griffin 5% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1%
68 WHITE Myles 4% 20% 36% 29% 10% 1%
69 MODANLOU Navid - 1% 7% 25% 41% 24% 3%
70 EVANS Joseph 7% 25% 35% 24% 9% 2% -
71 CUELLAR Markus 2% 14% 34% 34% 15% 2% -
72 JONES Jackson 2% 12% 33% 36% 15% 2% -
73 LEECH Braedan 13% 35% 33% 15% 3% -
74 SO Lorenzo 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 4%
75 RAPALSKI Thomas 4% 21% 36% 28% 10% 1%
76 LEHNER Brian 5% 35% 49% 10% 1%
77 LEE Henry 4% 22% 37% 27% 9% 1% -
78 ZHU Yiming 4% 19% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
79 HALE Bradley 43% 40% 14% 2% - - -
80 MEGGERS Davin 2% 11% 30% 35% 19% 4%
81 GANZY Ethan 2% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2% -
82 ZUNIGA Carlos Andres Flores 2% 16% 35% 32% 13% 2% -
83 BEUTLER Andreas 9% 31% 38% 18% 4% -
84 VELLALA Avinash 16% 37% 32% 12% 2% -
85 JARRATT Isaac 30% 44% 22% 5% - - -
86 SOVA Thomas 1% 5% 17% 31% 30% 14% 3%
87 HERZ Alexander S. 1% 7% 21% 33% 27% 10% 1%
88 CHEMEZOV Trent 3% 17% 34% 31% 13% 2%
89 BENUCCI Vincent 31% 42% 21% 5% 1% -
90 EVANS Grant 3% 16% 34% 32% 13% 2%
92 ARMSTRONG TyLee 20% 39% 29% 10% 2% -
93 ABU-AJAJ Mohamed 14% 34% 32% 15% 4% - -
94 YAP Nathan 3% 16% 31% 30% 16% 4% -
95 BATISTA Julian 12% 37% 35% 14% 2% - -
96 BANG Dylan 22% 41% 28% 9% 1% - -
97 FEELY Benjamin 4% 24% 42% 25% 5% - -
98 WANG Kaiyan 13% 34% 34% 16% 3% -
99 CHIU Sebastian 36% 44% 17% 3% - - -
100 KUBBA Sauvil 49% 43% 8% 1% - - -
101 SUNKARA Vishnu 16% 40% 32% 10% 1% - -
102 ZHAO Pierce 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
102 LORENZ Nathan 38% 42% 17% 3% - - -
104 BAYUS Oliver 61% 34% 5% - -
105 TATE William Isom 9% 32% 37% 18% 4% -
107 CHONG Eden 26% 52% 19% 3% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.