Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div I-A Men's Épée

Friday, January 2, 2026 at 1:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 SVERDLOV Seth 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 29%
2 SERAFIN Ben 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 81% 27%
3 NORTH Alexander M. 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 37%
3 MAO Benjamin 100% 100% 100% 91% 40%
5 YANG Gary 100% 100% 99% 95% 79% 47% 13%
6 TUCKER ALFONSO Javier 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 53%
7 WANG Tony 100% 99% 93% 70% 33% 7% -
8 CULPEPPER John (JR) R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 68%
9 CHO Tyler H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 70%
10 DELONG Joshua 100% 94% 71% 37% 12% 2% -
11 CHO Alex 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 7% 1%
12 XIE Brandon 100% 99% 89% 62% 25% 4%
13 KIM Gene 100% 99% 87% 56% 20% 2%
14 TOWNSHEND Connor 100% 87% 36% 4% -
15 ADDYSON Aidan 100% 100% 93% 63% 22% 3% -
16 CARTER Austin L. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 63% 14%
17 LIOU Solomon 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 42%
18 HRAPSKY Ryan J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 65%
19 KE Sebastian 100% 99% 90% 65% 31% 8% -
20 HU Robert J. 100% 100% 98% 88% 59% 20%
21 YI Kyle 100% 100% 100% 91% 43%
22 YI Nathan 100% 98% 83% 50% 17% 2%
23 CHRISTY Peter C. 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 30% 5%
24 CLICK Tristan 100% 100% 99% 95% 75% 36% 5%
24 MONTESI Eric 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 41% 7%
26 COHEN Jared E. 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 14%
27 ALI Farhan 100% 100% 95% 74% 37% 8%
28 TIRRELL Justin J. 100% 100% 100% 94% 72% 31% 4%
29 DJONOUMA Toyohm 100% 99% 93% 71% 34% 6%
30 MARTIN Mason 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 30%
31 CHANEY Charles 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 7% -
32 PENG Yue 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 4%
33 TABLEMAN Doug S. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 57%
34 KONG Brandon 100% 99% 88% 54% 16% 1% -
35 ZUCKER Noah L. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 62%
36 RUSSELL James 100% 100% 99% 92% 63% 22% 3%
37 AYOTTE James 100% 99% 93% 71% 33% 6%
38 NALLICHERI Ayaan 100% 99% 89% 59% 22% 3% -
38 LEE Benjamin 100% 78% 37% 10% 1% -
40 MUMMIDI Rishi 100% 99% 95% 78% 48% 18% 3%
41 CHENH Justin 100% 100% 98% 85% 48% 9% -
42 CHAN Kyle Si Tin 100% 98% 86% 58% 25% 6% 1%
43 LEE Aiden 100% 98% 82% 47% 14% 1%
44 MARISI Gabriel 100% 87% 53% 19% 4% -
45 ZHAO Zidong 100% 99% 93% 71% 35% 8%
46 KOGAN Yelisey L. 100% 67% 25% 5% - -
47 CANDELARIA Armando 100% 97% 80% 45% 14% 2% -
48 SWENSON Keane J. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 63% 17%
49 WATERS Nathaniel 100% 100% 94% 63% 23% 3% -
50 HOWARD Jackson 100% 100% 96% 78% 43% 12% 1%
51 LIU Jeremiah W. 100% 98% 84% 48% 15% 2%
52 HAN Sam 100% 100% 99% 94% 77% 43% 11%
54 CHU Brandon A. 100% 99% 90% 67% 34% 10% 1%
55 SNYDER IV William B. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 55%
56 ZHU Aaron 100% 91% 60% 24% 5% -
57 KIM Joshua 100% 98% 87% 56% 21% 3%
58 NG Nico 100% 96% 77% 44% 15% 3% -
59 SHELLY Emery 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 2% -
60 BROSNAN Solomon 100% 87% 50% 16% 3% - -
61 PARKER Isaiah 100% 99% 90% 62% 24% 3%
62 RAMEY Daylon 100% 92% 60% 22% 4% - -
63 WANG Marcus 100% 97% 80% 48% 18% 3% -
64 MEGGERS Samuel 100% 99% 87% 56% 21% 3% -
65 PAN Colin 100% 99% 92% 66% 30% 6%
66 ROBERTS Phoenix 100% 99% 91% 65% 26% 4% -
67 DILDA Griffin 100% 95% 72% 35% 9% 1%
68 WHITE Myles 100% 96% 76% 41% 12% 1%
69 MODANLOU Navid 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 26% 3%
70 EVANS Joseph 100% 93% 69% 34% 10% 2% -
71 CUELLAR Markus 100% 98% 84% 51% 17% 2% -
72 JONES Jackson 100% 98% 86% 53% 17% 2% -
73 LEECH Braedan 100% 87% 52% 19% 4% -
74 SO Lorenzo 100% 98% 86% 57% 22% 4%
75 RAPALSKI Thomas 100% 96% 75% 39% 11% 1%
76 LEHNER Brian 100% 95% 59% 11% 1%
77 LEE Henry 100% 96% 74% 37% 10% 1% -
78 ZHU Yiming 100% 96% 77% 44% 16% 3% -
79 HALE Bradley 100% 57% 17% 3% - - -
80 MEGGERS Davin 100% 98% 87% 58% 22% 4%
81 GANZY Ethan 100% 98% 81% 47% 15% 2% -
82 ZUNIGA Carlos Andres Flores 100% 98% 82% 47% 15% 2% -
83 BEUTLER Andreas 100% 91% 60% 22% 4% -
84 VELLALA Avinash 100% 84% 46% 15% 2% -
85 JARRATT Isaac 100% 70% 26% 5% - - -
86 SOVA Thomas 100% 99% 95% 78% 47% 17% 3%
87 HERZ Alexander S. 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 11% 1%
88 CHEMEZOV Trent 100% 97% 79% 45% 15% 2%
89 BENUCCI Vincent 100% 69% 27% 6% 1% -
90 EVANS Grant 100% 97% 81% 47% 15% 2%
92 ARMSTRONG TyLee 100% 80% 41% 12% 2% -
93 ABU-AJAJ Mohamed 100% 86% 52% 19% 4% - -
94 YAP Nathan 100% 97% 81% 51% 20% 5% -
95 BATISTA Julian 100% 88% 51% 16% 2% - -
96 BANG Dylan 100% 78% 38% 10% 1% - -
97 FEELY Benjamin 100% 96% 72% 31% 6% - -
98 WANG Kaiyan 100% 87% 53% 19% 4% -
99 CHIU Sebastian 100% 64% 20% 3% - - -
100 KUBBA Sauvil 100% 51% 9% 1% - - -
101 SUNKARA Vishnu 100% 84% 44% 12% 1% - -
102 ZHAO Pierce 100% 96% 78% 45% 16% 3% -
102 LORENZ Nathan 100% 62% 20% 3% - - -
104 BAYUS Oliver 100% 39% 5% - -
105 TATE William Isom 100% 91% 59% 22% 4% -
107 CHONG Eden 100% 74% 22% 3% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.