February NAC

Vet-40 Men's Épée

Friday, February 13, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Duke Energy Convention Center - Cincinnati, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HURME Tommi K.	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
2	HALLMAN Nicholas (Nick) J.	-	-	4%	21%	45%	30%
3	MACZIK Adam W.	-	-	5%	23%	45%	26%
3	LIOU Solomon	1%	11%	34%	37%	15%	2%
5	CONKLIN Jim	1%	14%	42%	36%	7%
6	SPROWLES Cameron D.	-	-	-	3%	23%	59%	14%
7	MANDOKI Sandor I.	-	-	3%	18%	43%	36%
8	MAKMATOV Vadim	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
9	TSINIS Alexander E.	-	-	-	-	1%	24%	74%
10	CHRISTY Peter C.	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
11	YAMASAKI Kyle A.	-	-	4%	24%	56%	15%
12	OLIVERIUS Joseph W.	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	21%
13	COX Matthew T.	2%	16%	37%	32%	11%	1%
14	DEPAUW Devan	-	4%	22%	41%	28%	4%	-
15	CHU Brandon A.	4%	25%	40%	25%	6%	-
16	FIEDERLEIN Andrew M.	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
17	CARTER Austin L.	-	5%	24%	40%	25%	5%
18	FENOUL Frederic	-	-	-	2%	28%	69%
19	SUVOROV Yuly	1%	14%	41%	37%	8%
20	LEWIS-RAMIREZ Ben	7%	37%	40%	14%	1%	-
21	MCGRATH Sean L.	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
22	GOLCU Doruk	31%	45%	20%	4%	-	-
23	STOCK Jordan	2%	19%	43%	30%	5%	-
24	ELBAG Mark H.	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
25	POTTER Joshua (Josh) M.	-	2%	15%	37%	36%	10%
26	MCNALLY Thomas J.	2%	18%	42%	32%	6%	-
27	LAWLOR Lee	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
28	KIM Jeff	1%	7%	29%	41%	21%	2%	-
29	VALENTINE Shem	13%	42%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
30	MORET Eric N.	18%	48%	28%	6%	-
31	KRIEGER Nathanial	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
32	SUCHOSKI Annika	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
33	ISAAC Mena	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
34	EVERT Todd	1%	7%	28%	41%	21%	3%
35	PEI Suyang	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
37	LOCASALE Nicholas A.	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	1%
38	REED David	18%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-
39	FULLER II Thomas	48%	41%	10%	1%	-
40	TURNER Joshua	5%	29%	40%	21%	5%	-
41	CHI Kai-Hung	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-	-
42	COLE Matthew	2%	14%	37%	35%	12%	1%	-
43	MIZRAHI Meir	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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