GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GINZBURG Adam	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
2	ROWLAND Marsden	-	1%	11%	34%	40%	13%
3	SPINA Joseph B.	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
3	WANG Kaiyan	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
5	WILLIAMS Logan	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
6	LIU-XUE Shuliang	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
7	SANFORD Wesley	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	1%
8	SEABLOOM Jack	-	1%	12%	32%	37%	17%	1%
9	PECKENS Tyler	-	-	2%	16%	43%	38%
10	CHEN Isaac Zhi	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%	2%
11	SHAFFER Tyler	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	9%	-
12	HUANG Max	-	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	-
13	SWENSON Diego	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
14	ZHANG James	-	1%	6%	22%	39%	28%	5%
15	ZHANG Michael	-	5%	24%	41%	25%	5%
16	BROUGHAM Brice	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
17	BOSS Evan	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
18	SAYLOR Henry	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
19	BUTTA Reese	1%	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
20	VELDTMAN rafe	5%	34%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
21	LARSON Vaughn	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	3%
22	STREETER Oliver	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
23	HONG Daniel	14%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-
24	LIU Quincy	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	8%
25	JERDEE Colton	11%	35%	36%	16%	3%	-
26	YANG Julian	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
27	WYCHULIS Tristan	5%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
28	ROBINS Damien	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
29	ASIALA Niilo	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
30	YATES Graeme	5%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
31	WILTSE Alexander	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-	-
32	MEISER Charlie	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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