Rain City Super Youth Circuit (SYC)

Y-12 Women's Épée

Saturday, April 18, 2026 at 1:30 PM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Anna	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
2	YIP Allison	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	23%
3	SUN Milly	-	-	6%	28%	44%	22%
3	XIONG Alice	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
5	XU Aasta	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
6	DAI Sophie	-	1%	11%	37%	42%	9%
7	SUN Joanna	-	-	8%	30%	42%	20%
8	PAN Zoe	-	3%	26%	42%	24%	5%
9	YU Chloe	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
10	LI Ariel	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
11	DU Chloe	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	5%
12	LI Allison	-	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
14	VIJAY Vaishnavi	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
15	WANG Yvonne	-	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
16	HUANG Sophie	-	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%	1%
17	ZHANG Carina	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
18	BERESTOVITSKY Eva	-	5%	21%	37%	27%	9%	1%
19	TRUONG Chloe	1%	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
20	TRIVULCE Scarlett	1%	8%	25%	37%	23%	6%	1%
21	WONG Isabelle	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
22	DEJOY Leilah	-	6%	27%	44%	21%	2%
23	VINLUAN Emma	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
24	YANG Arianna	1%	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
25	SHIN Nayun	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	1%
26	CHEN Stephanie	-	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	19%
27	REN Harper	2%	11%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
28	DEFENSOR Ella	-	2%	23%	43%	27%	6%
29	YANG Nina	1%	7%	24%	36%	24%	7%	1%
30	DU Chelsea	-	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
31	KUSHNERENKO Maiia	-	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
32	LI Alexandra	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-	-
33	LEE Hyelyn	7%	29%	41%	20%	3%	-
34	HALLENBECK Aderyn	12%	42%	34%	11%	2%	-	-
35	KERECHANYN Anastasiia	-	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
36	KUANG Isabella	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
37	EDALGO Annabelle	49%	45%	6%	-	-	-
38	LEE Layla	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
39	LIU FLORA	17%	43%	31%	8%	1%	-
40	DAI Amy	12%	39%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
41	HONG Ellie	65%	29%	5%	-	-	-	-
42	YOON Michelle	6%	38%	38%	15%	3%	-	-
44	WANG Yuette	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-	-
45	CHONG Kaitlyn HeiTung	36%	54%	9%	1%	-	-
46	LIU Emma	19%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-	-
47	LEONG Alyssa	32%	44%	20%	3%	-	-
48	SOMANI Iam	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-	-
49	LEONG Zoey	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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