8th Annual Little Musketeers RYC & RJC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 3:00 PM

Torrance, CA - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LO Conrad	-	-	-	-	2%	26%	71%
2	WANG Ethan	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
3	JAIN Aditya	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	49%
3	KANG Anthony Jaegu	-	-	4%	20%	42%	34%
5	SADOVSKY Leor B.	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
6	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
7	LIEW Harrison C.	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	9%
8	LLIDO Soren	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%
9	ZHENG Zhe	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%
10	ZHOU Hao Kai (Kevin)	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
11	CHEN Jaden K.	-	4%	29%	42%	22%	4%
12	WONG Antonio	-	8%	28%	38%	22%	5%
13	WONG Matthew H.	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%
14	BAUER Roman	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	1%
15	KIM Ryan Y.	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
16	SIU Aiden	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
17	VALOUEV Aleksey	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
18	RYOU Andy	-	-	1%	9%	32%	47%	10%
19	CHOI Ethan	-	1%	4%	17%	36%	34%	8%
20	KHVANG Sebastien T.	1%	12%	32%	35%	16%	3%
21	DINSAY Kristjan	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
21	NORIEGA Julian	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
23	ADAMS Jackson	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%	-
24	OH Jaden	4%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
25	SOTO-ULEV Aden A.	-	4%	21%	43%	32%
26	LEE Dylan	17%	38%	31%	12%	2%	-
27	OROSZLAN Benjamin	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
27	DE LA FUENTE Ian	1%	17%	37%	32%	12%	2%
29	LOWE Austin	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	13%
30	WANG Logan	-	2%	14%	33%	36%	14%
31	LLOYD henry	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%
32	MORROW Brenden	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%
33	OH Joshua	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
34	FUKUDA Diego	-	8%	27%	37%	23%	5%
35	KIM Aiden	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	3%
36	SHEN Oliver	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
37	KIM Luke	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-
38	AGEYEV Aleksey	7%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-	-
39	SHEN Owen	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
40	ULLOA Trent J.	28%	53%	17%	2%	-	-
41	PARK Gabriel	28%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
42	LO Preston	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%	-
43	AGRAWAL Niki	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
44	TULYAG Azim	5%	20%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
45	TSAY Jordan R.	1%	7%	26%	39%	24%	4%	-
46	LEE Benjamin	49%	42%	8%	1%	-	-
46	RAHMAN Yousef	81%	18%	2%	-	-	-
48	WANG Rui Qin	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
48	CHANG Connor	10%	36%	38%	13%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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