The Fencing Center RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, February 3, 2019 at 11:00 AM

San Jose, CA - San Jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CANDELA Nicholas	-	-	1%	13%	44%	42%
2	MACHULSKY Ned	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
3	SHIN Joshua	-	-	4%	28%	49%	18%
3	SHUR Yakov C.	-	1%	9%	43%	38%	9%
5	WISOFF Jeffrey	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	11%
6	SHARMA Sanil	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
7	RAJPAL Sartaj S.	-	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
8	NG Alexander M.	-	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%
9	NGUYEN Ethan D.	-	-	-	5%	23%	46%	25%
10	KIM PAUL	1%	7%	26%	38%	24%	5%
11	DE JONG Thijmen J.	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	11%
12	HE Jason	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
13	VAN EIKEMA HOMMES Neil B.	-	1%	8%	27%	43%	21%
14	CAI Kevin P.	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
15	GHILDIYAL Manyu	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	4%
16	KIM Benjamin I.	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
17	DORRELL Connor I.	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	15%	2%
18	JEON Alexander E.	-	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
19	LIANG Aaron	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	3%
20	SHAMIS Mark	-	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
21	LIU Bennett	-	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%
22	LEVY Zachari I.	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
23	ROBINSON Riley	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
24	ZIEBART Jeremy J.	-	5%	25%	40%	25%	5%
25	SCRIBNER Aidan C.	1%	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-
26	MA Victor	55%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
27	RAKHIMI Marat T.	11%	39%	40%	9%	1%	-
28	SIVAGAR Leo	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
29	DESOUZA Hansel S.	-	3%	18%	36%	32%	11%
30	GARRETT Samuel	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
31	ARABACI Jack A.	31%	48%	20%	2%	-	-
32	HAINES Reagan	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-
33	ZHANG Michael	26%	48%	24%	2%	-	-
34	PALLI Maximillian	13%	35%	35%	14%	3%	-
35	SMITH Zane A.	6%	33%	39%	18%	4%	-
36	KOH Tommy	3%	30%	41%	21%	4%	-	-
37	VELUVALI Vivek S.	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	-
38	WONG Nathan	1%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%
39	STENNIS Brendan	60%	33%	6%	1%	-	-
40	LOUIE Jason	17%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
41	LIU Felix	1%	14%	36%	34%	13%	2%	-
42	WANG Andrew	99%	1%	-	-	-	-
43	MILEY Nick N.	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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