Music City RYC & RJCC Epee and Foil ONLY

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 3:00 PM

Nashville, TN - Nashville, TN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RHYU Kozmo	-	-	1%	5%	23%	44%	28%
2	KIM Ethan J.	-	-	6%	27%	48%	19%
3	ROBINSON Keegan B.	-	-	2%	13%	42%	43%
3	YIM Nathan H.	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
5	STEELE DeMario A.	-	-	-	7%	36%	57%
6	WALKER IV Weymouth D.	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	25%
7	CAPELLUA Tommaso	-	1%	11%	37%	41%	9%
8	KOUSTIKOV Max	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
9	GATZA Logan	-	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
10	PARK Jong-Eun	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
11	BUYANOV Nikita V.	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	7%
12	JACKSON James	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
13	JOSEPH William	2%	18%	41%	31%	8%	1%
14	VALES Keyan	2%	14%	30%	31%	17%	5%	1%
15	PARNAS Apollo	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
16	WU Byron	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
17	KIM Alexander	-	-	3%	13%	30%	36%	17%
18	ARANA Abraham	3%	16%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
19	SCHARF Ryan	6%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
20	CANTRELL Jason T.	1%	12%	35%	37%	13%	1%
21	PARNAS Ely	-	4%	24%	44%	25%	3%
22	CHAWLA Armaan	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%
23	WEIST Spencer	43%	40%	15%	3%	-	-	-
24	CLICK Aiden	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
25	FORSYTHE Hunter	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
26	JORDAN Jonathan ".	-	2%	10%	28%	35%	21%	4%
27	JAAFAR Omar	3%	21%	43%	27%	6%	-
28	JANG Elliot	-	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%
28	LEE Kennith	9%	43%	35%	11%	2%	-
30	CHONG christopher	-	-	3%	15%	32%	35%	15%
31	MARIN Lucas	1%	9%	28%	37%	20%	4%	-
32	LIU Edward	8%	38%	39%	14%	1%	-
33	NORMAN Christian	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
34	ZHANG Andy	46%	42%	11%	1%	-	-
35	JAAFAR Youssef	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
36	HULSEY Logan	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
37	BAKER Julian L.	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
38	KURBEGOV Alexander R.	12%	32%	34%	17%	5%	-
39	SIVAKUMAR Ajit	4%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
40	FERNANDEZ Christopher	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
41	NICHOLS JR Cortez	6%	30%	38%	20%	5%	1%	-
42	SHAH Anuj	18%	46%	29%	6%	-	-
43	SONG Ervin	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
44	WERNER Sean T.	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
45	WANG Aidan	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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