Silicon Valley RYC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, March 30, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Santa Clara, CA - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DIECK Logan O.	-	-	2%	11%	34%	41%	12%
2	LIU Andrew	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	9%
3	BAGCHI Aritra	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	34%
3	CHINN Lucas	-	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
5	ZHANG Alec	-	1%	6%	25%	41%	23%	4%
6	CHU Allan	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%	< 1%
7	ZAYDMAN David M.	2%	11%	27%	32%	21%	7%	1%
8	CASASSOVICI Georges	2%	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
9	KHER Roan	-	3%	18%	38%	30%	10%	1%
10	CASTELLY Luke	1%	8%	26%	36%	22%	6%	1%
11	HOLLAND Thomas	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
12	PARK Elliot	-	2%	8%	23%	34%	26%	8%
13	BLANCO Renn	2%	21%	39%	28%	9%	1%	-
14	LEVENTAL Mark	-	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	16%
15	LIANG derek	8%	29%	39%	21%	4%	-
16	KNUDSEN Travis	8%	27%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-
17	LEE Bryson	-	-	1%	8%	44%	47%
18	ZHUANG William	-	-	3%	17%	39%	32%	8%
19	SHA Michael	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	12%	1%
20	CHEN Bailey	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
21	CAZALET George	7%	25%	34%	23%	9%	2%	-
22	CHUNG Christopher	4%	22%	40%	28%	7%	-
23	DOWDELL Riley	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%	-
24	NG Biwon	24%	44%	26%	5%	-	-
25	LEELANIVAS Ethan	11%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
26	KIM Jayden	1%	8%	24%	33%	24%	9%	1%
27	SINHA Zaan	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
29	BHARGAV Angad	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
30	VINODH Matsya	15%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
31	ULINICH Alexander	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-	-
32	BHATT Arjun	1%	12%	35%	36%	13%	2%	-
33	GULCHIN Sam	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-	-
34	ANDERSON Kai	1%	8%	22%	32%	25%	10%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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