4th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC & RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, February 22, 2020 at 1:00 PM

Chatsworth, CA - Chatsworth, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NAYGAS LAWRENCE I.	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
2	KANG Anthony Jaegu	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	19%
3	SADOVSKY Leor B.	-	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	12%
3	WONG Antonio	-	1%	9%	33%	43%	15%
5	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
6	DE LA FUENTE Ian	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
7	KIM Ryan Y.	-	1%	9%	34%	45%	11%
8	LLIDO Soren	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
9	FUKUDA Diego	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
10	KIM Aiden	-	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
11	SHEN Owen	-	5%	22%	43%	26%	4%
12	OH Jaden	4%	17%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-
13	RYOU Andy	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
14	BAUER Roman	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	4%	-
15	RASMUSSEN Sage	2%	13%	28%	32%	19%	5%	-
16	LO Preston	4%	18%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-
17	SOTO-ULEV Aden A.	-	-	-	5%	33%	61%
18	WU James	15%	44%	33%	7%	< 1%	-
19	NORIEGA Julian	-	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%
20	DINSAY Kristjan	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
21	LEE Dylan	2%	15%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
22	WANG Logan	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
23	KHVANG Sebastien T.	5%	22%	34%	26%	11%	2%	-
24	CHOI Ethan	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
25	NGUYEN martin	8%	30%	40%	19%	3%	-
26	AGRAWAL Niki	14%	39%	35%	11%	1%	-
27	SHEN Oliver	-	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	2%
28	KIM Luke	15%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-
29	YI William	1%	9%	31%	41%	17%	2%
30	ULLOA Trent J.	22%	43%	27%	6%	1%	-
31	PARK Gabriel	1%	25%	40%	25%	8%	1%	-
32	LIEW Harrison C.	-	3%	13%	29%	34%	18%	3%
33	TSAO Holden	7%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
34	ASHJIAN Nicolas	4%	17%	32%	30%	14%	3%	-
35	PARK Sangmin (Steve)	1%	9%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
36	TULYAG Azim	3%	19%	37%	29%	10%	2%	-
36	PARK Sky	34%	44%	18%	4%	-	-	-
38	EDISON Ansel	28%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
39	JEONG Taewoo	50%	38%	11%	2%	-	-	-
40	GOLWALA Yash	87%	13%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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