WAY Epic Epee: Men's A2 Push & Women's Open

Men's Épée

Sunday, November 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM

Way of the Sword Fencing - Ridgefield, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GIBSON Nowell	-	-	3%	22%	50%	25%
2	GORDON Reis	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
3	LUKANYUK Lorence	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
3	RICUTA Laurentiu Florentin	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	17%
5	GOHEL Dayus T.	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
5	LONCAR Luka	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
7	JIN Owen	-	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
8	ANDERSON Brendan	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
9	GUI Runlin	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	23%	6%
10	FELDMAN Jaemin	-	1%	11%	37%	40%	11%
11	MORSE Tyler	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	17%
12	WU Joseph	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	18%	3%
13	KIM Tei D	2%	22%	37%	27%	10%	2%	-
14	HERMANSON Daivd	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
15	SIMPSON Patrick	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
16	ANSOUR Edward	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%
17	KIM William	-	-	4%	16%	35%	34%	11%
18	SHAH Maximilian	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
19	PAPAVASSILIOU Christos	21%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
20	LANGTON Sawyer	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
21	KIM Byung	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%
21	GAO Daniel	21%	49%	25%	4%	-	-
23	GAYNOR Nathan	10%	30%	34%	19%	6%	1%	-
24	CHOI Mason	2%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
25	ROUSE Joseph	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
26	MCDERMOTT James	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	1%
27	PARK Frederick	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
28	WU Jonathan	45%	43%	11%	1%	-	-
29	BAZURO Andrew	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
30	PATENAUDE Kameron	3%	23%	46%	24%	4%	-
31	FUSSMAN Yval	70%	26%	4%	-	-	-	-
32	GERSEN Jacob	10%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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