THE ORLANDO CHALLENGE RYC/RJCC 2021 Reg Open 10/10

Y-14 Men's Foil

Friday, March 5, 2021 at 1:00 PM

Orlando, FL - Orlando, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Matthew	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	7%
2	GRAHAM Roy J.	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	54%
3	SADOVSKY Leor B.	-	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	6%
3	LEE Jacob	1%	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
5	WONG Garrick G.	-	-	1%	8%	33%	44%	14%
6	TANG Owen S.	-	-	1%	13%	47%	38%
7	KNOEPFFLER Alex	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	21%
8	GORBACHEV Alexander	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
9	OH SEAN	-	-	-	4%	17%	41%	38%
10	CANO Marcos E.	-	-	2%	16%	50%	33%
11	ORTEGA Jose-Arnel	-	5%	23%	40%	27%	5%
12	WANG Winston	3%	18%	38%	30%	9%	1%
13	KLYCZEK Andrew	-	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	5%
14	HOGGARD Carson	9%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-	-
15	KNIZHNIK David	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	4%
16	KUMAMOTO Sota	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	23%
17	IVANENKO Alex	20%	44%	29%	6%	< 1%	-	-
18	HUTH Trevor	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
19	ORLOV Dmitriy	-	5%	28%	47%	17%	2%
20	ROSS III Paul D.	13%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
21	LEE Lukas	1%	10%	31%	37%	17%	3%	-
22	QIAN Jason H.	-	-	3%	16%	38%	33%	9%
23	QUINTERO Julian	6%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
24	WANG Brayden	26%	45%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
25	PAN Henry	5%	29%	46%	18%	2%	-
26	FORSYTH Patrick	30%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
27	WECHSLER Jacob	-	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	3%
28	TIKHAEV Alexander	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
29	LORENZO Alejandro	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%	-
30	RODRIGUEZ Lazaro S.	5%	22%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
31	ARIZA Abraham J.	5%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
32	MOE Annan	20%	43%	28%	8%	1%	-
33	ALVAREZ ADRIAN ALEJANDRO	1%	7%	25%	39%	23%	6%	-
34	ZOU Yuming	19%	45%	29%	7%	-	-
35	CHEN Junxuan	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
36	LARSON Matthew	42%	45%	12%	1%	-	-
37	LI Lianhan	20%	41%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
38	KOE Beckett	27%	46%	23%	5%	-	-	-
39	SELPACKIS Dmitriy A.	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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