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Div I-A Men's Épée

Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PETROLL Jared P.	-	-	1%	9%	51%	39%
2	GYURE Brayden H.	-	-	3%	14%	33%	37%	13%
3	REAGAN Dustin R.	-	-	5%	27%	44%	23%
3	LEE Seungwon	-	7%	26%	37%	23%	5%
5	MAISONET-GUZMAN Hector E.	-	-	-	1%	13%	44%	41%
6	NEAL John P.	-	-	1%	8%	32%	48%	11%
7	THAYER Jake T.	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
8	SAITOC Tudor	-	-	-	-	3%	28%	69%
9	HURME Tommi K.	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
10	PHILLIPS Jeffrey T.	-	-	1%	10%	33%	44%	11%
11	RITCHIE Phillip	-	3%	20%	42%	30%	5%
12	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
13	MCALISTER Ian	-	6%	27%	42%	22%	2%
14	DEES Reed	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%	-
15	MADSEN Jr Eric W.	-	3%	16%	40%	35%	6%
16	SHETTY Surya	-	3%	23%	43%	26%	4%
17	WALLAK Jesse J.	-	1%	5%	17%	32%	32%	13%
18	HONAKER Grant J.	45%	43%	10%	1%	-	-
19	SMITH Dylan	1%	9%	33%	38%	16%	2%
20	MING Nathan	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%	-
21	GERACI Paul A.	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
22	SANCHEZ Emanuel	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%	-
23	XIAO Andrew	1%	8%	28%	39%	21%	4%	-
24	MASK Austin	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%	-
25	HAGER Spencer	-	3%	15%	31%	32%	15%	3%
26	KARKI Salyan	1%	8%	30%	41%	19%	2%
27	WEN Ethan	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	6%
28	SCHULTZ John	3%	28%	42%	23%	5%	-
29	SINHA Zaan	13%	41%	34%	11%	1%	-
30	GUNDA Saketh	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
31	XIONG Aaron	24%	39%	26%	9%	2%	-	-
32	KASKAN Peter E.	14%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
33	GONZALEZ Michael	3%	20%	42%	29%	6%	-
34	BEATY Trace	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
35	BROWN Allan	3%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
36	SALEH Omar	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
37	ERTEL Mark C.	23%	52%	21%	3%	-	-
38	JONES Bennett	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
39	RUNGE Patrick A.	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-	-
40	BARGE Jackson	3%	22%	42%	27%	6%	-
41	SMITH Ian	46%	42%	11%	1%	-	-
42	KERLEE Zachary	11%	36%	36%	15%	2%	-	-
43	MAKHLOUF Anthony J.	< 1%	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
44	ELANGO SriVaaikuntesh	21%	48%	26%	5%	-	-
45	THURMAN Neo	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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