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Y-14 Men's Épée

Saturday, April 30, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MACARTY Jordan T.	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	KIM Byung	-	-	-	3%	19%	48%	29%
3	KATS Dylan G.	-	-	-	3%	17%	46%	35%
3	SHCHUR Landon	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
5	IARIKOV Nicholas	-	-	-	4%	19%	41%	35%
6	WU Jonathan	-	-	3%	18%	45%	35%
7	SHA Michael	-	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
8	CHIMOSKEY Finn D.	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
9	DODIN David	-	-	1%	11%	41%	46%
10	ZAYDMAN Ethan	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%
11	HEADRICK Lance	-	2%	14%	38%	39%	6%
12	PALIWODA Nicholas	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	3%	-
13	THAKUR Om S.	-	1%	7%	27%	45%	20%
14	KOYFMAN Benjamin	-	2%	14%	40%	37%	7%
15	NATSVLISHVILI John Vano	-	1%	8%	30%	45%	16%
16	BRODSKY Julian	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	2%
17	MAO Benjamin	-	2%	17%	43%	33%	6%
18	BAMBRA Taranjot	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	2%
19	TRULL A.J.	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
20	NAKAS Levent	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
21	OTTO Nathaniel B.	-	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
22	CHEN Leonardo	11%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-
23	WU Colin	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%	-
24	LAI Boden	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%	-
25	ARMSTRONG TyLee	6%	28%	40%	21%	4%	-
26	CHOU Benson	7%	31%	42%	17%	2%	-
27	HEADRICK Jack	2%	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%
28	MEGGERS Davin	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
29	HIGGASON Hugh	11%	31%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
30	LIU Adam	13%	39%	35%	12%	1%	-
31	TSE Maxwell	5%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%
32	CHOI Christian	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-
33	MALHAM Andrew	4%	22%	41%	27%	6%	-
34	ZOGRAFOS Nicholas	28%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
35	TSANG William	3%	19%	38%	31%	9%	-
36	GINZBURG Adam	1%	10%	27%	34%	22%	6%	1%
37	ZENG Andrew	3%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%	-
38	KANG Brandon	20%	45%	29%	6%	-	-
39	NILSEN Mark	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
40	LIOZNYANSKY Miron	11%	32%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
41	URBAN Leo	6%	40%	39%	13%	2%	-
42	LI Ray	33%	46%	19%	2%	-	-
43	ZHAO Pierce	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
44	WASSERMAN Jacob	7%	32%	38%	18%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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