National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div III Men's Épée

Friday, July 7, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ROTHKA Spencer J. - 1% 5% 18% 35% 32% 10%
2 JITTAN daniel - - 1% 7% 26% 42% 23%
3 HU Robert J. - 1% 5% 18% 34% 32% 11%
3 HAN Lawrence - - - 1% 9% 35% 54%
5 ZHANG ethan - - 3% 13% 31% 36% 16%
6 JONES Reilly - 1% 6% 19% 34% 30% 10%
7 ANDERSON Kai 4% 20% 36% 28% 10% 2% -
8 BAILEY David - - 2% 11% 30% 38% 19%
9 ROBINS Brennan - - 3% 17% 42% 37%
10 LI Ethan R. - 2% 11% 27% 34% 20% 5%
11 SHIRLEY Kai - 3% 14% 30% 32% 17% 3%
12 SIYANKO Joshua - 1% 5% 19% 35% 30% 10%
13 DAO Alexander - 2% 9% 24% 34% 24% 7%
14 LEE Aiden - 2% 12% 27% 33% 20% 5%
15 CHU Brandon A. 1% 9% 24% 32% 24% 9% 1%
16 PARK Augustine - 1% 5% 19% 34% 31% 11%
17 ABDELGAWAD Abdelrahman - - 1% 5% 22% 45% 27%
18 SMITH Troy H. - - 1% 8% 26% 41% 24%
19 REDDY Arya 1% 11% 32% 36% 17% 3%
20 TEMPLEHOF Robert C. - 2% 9% 24% 34% 25% 7%
21 LIU Dylan Y. - 2% 13% 31% 35% 17% 2%
22 DURHAM Porter - 2% 9% 24% 34% 24% 7%
23 PAPP Mike - 1% 5% 18% 34% 31% 11%
24 VILLAREAL Quentin - 1% 5% 17% 34% 32% 11%
25 LEE Bryson - 3% 13% 29% 33% 17% 3%
26 TIEMANN Landen 1% 6% 20% 33% 27% 11% 2%
27 FULLERTON Joshua D. - 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 1%
28 ZHENG Jerry - - 4% 16% 33% 34% 13%
29 GUPTA Karan 1% 5% 17% 31% 29% 14% 3%
30 SONG Troy - 2% 12% 28% 33% 19% 4%
31 FUSSMAN Yuval 1% 6% 20% 32% 27% 12% 2%
32 GABAY Daniel 1% 9% 26% 35% 22% 6% 1%
33 BUI Henry - 1% 8% 24% 36% 25% 6%
34 PEÑA Ethan - 1% 6% 21% 34% 28% 9%
35 JANYSKA Allen - 3% 15% 32% 32% 15% 3%
35 MEN Junda - 4% 15% 31% 32% 15% 2%
37 KIM Jeff - 1% 7% 24% 36% 25% 7%
38 HESS Marc F. - 1% 6% 20% 35% 29% 9%
39 CHAO Warren - 3% 13% 29% 33% 18% 4%
40 CHUNG Yeongbin - 1% 12% 37% 42% 8%
41 EMMERT JP 1% 7% 20% 31% 27% 12% 2%
42 PALAMARCHUK Matthew 1% 6% 19% 32% 28% 12% 2%
43 NALLAMSHETTY Ayan - 1% 5% 18% 34% 31% 11%
44 HOWE Robert - - 2% 11% 29% 38% 20%
45 AGGELER Donovan - 3% 14% 29% 32% 17% 4%
46 AGARWAL Adheesh - 3% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3%
47 CHRISTIAN John R. - 1% 6% 19% 34% 30% 10%
47 LEE Jacob 1% 9% 23% 32% 24% 9% 1%
49 MORTIMER Gavin - 3% 13% 31% 33% 17% 3%
50 HANNON Owen 1% 10% 32% 37% 16% 2%
51 JOHNSON Ryder - 1% 7% 23% 35% 26% 7%
52 KIM Teo 1% 8% 30% 36% 19% 5% -
52 PAULSEN Zachary - 1% 7% 23% 36% 26% 7%
54 CHEN Bailey - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 9%
55 HERNANDEZ SANTIAGO - 5% 19% 33% 29% 12% 2%
56 PENG Gregory - 2% 10% 27% 35% 22% 5%
57 MOSKOWITZ Martin 25% 40% 25% 8% 1% - -
58 DESAI Nalin H. - 3% 14% 30% 33% 16% 3%
59 JACKSON Thomas 3% 16% 31% 30% 16% 4% -
59 MANITT Philip 31% 41% 21% 5% 1% - -
61 MALLON Jaxson 3% 17% 32% 29% 14% 3% -
62 CHENH Justin 1% 10% 27% 34% 21% 6% 1%
63 KORTZ Austin - 4% 17% 32% 31% 14% 2%
64 NOTT Kobi - 4% 15% 30% 31% 17% 4%
65 SHAFRITZ Noah - 1% 9% 26% 36% 23% 5%
66 JENNINGS Adin - - 2% 10% 28% 39% 20%
67 DAN Rex - 4% 17% 33% 30% 13% 2%
67 FU Jason - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 10%
69 BUCCELLATO Joel S. - 2% 11% 28% 34% 20% 4%
70 LOMIO Nicholas A. 3% 15% 30% 31% 17% 5% -
71 PARKS Isaac 1% 7% 22% 34% 26% 9% 1%
72 VALAYANNOPOULOS Nicolas - 1% 7% 22% 35% 27% 8%
73 DANIELS Jonah 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
74 HULL Liam 2% 10% 26% 32% 22% 7% 1%
75 ZHANG Roland 2% 16% 34% 31% 13% 2% -
76 BLAKESLEE Garrett H. 2% 11% 27% 33% 21% 6% -
77 NAZARIAN Jonah - 3% 13% 29% 33% 19% 4%
78 SODHI Jaco - - 2% 12% 30% 37% 18%
79 POOLE James M. - 1% 5% 18% 34% 32% 11%
80 GOROZA Eric 20% 39% 29% 10% 2% - -
81 RIVERA Louis 3% 14% 31% 31% 16% 4% -
82 VARON David - 3% 12% 27% 32% 20% 5%
83 RAHMAN Yousef 8% 30% 38% 19% 4% -
84 KUBATIN Anton V. 1% 8% 27% 39% 22% 4%
85 HOFFMANN Matthew 5% 21% 33% 27% 12% 3% -
86 RAO Neil 7% 25% 34% 23% 9% 2% -
87 BRUNDAGE Nevan 3% 16% 32% 31% 15% 4% -
87 BENFORD Kailan - - 3% 12% 30% 38% 17%
89 TORRES Gianni 1% 5% 17% 30% 29% 14% 3%
90 COLLINS Vernon 4% 18% 32% 29% 14% 3% -
90 JAIN Samyak 2% 13% 29% 33% 18% 5% -
90 KOSTUSIAK Evan 27% 41% 24% 7% 1% - -
93 MISHRA Milan B. 1% 10% 26% 33% 22% 7% 1%
94 CARNALL Hunter 3% 21% 36% 27% 10% 2% -
95 PAINTER Noah 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
95 EVERETT Taiger - 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 6%
97 MONTOYA Joaquin G. - 1% 8% 26% 38% 23% 4%
97 FAN Joshua 4% 20% 34% 28% 12% 2% -
99 COHEN Nathan 5% 22% 36% 26% 9% 1% -
100 LIU Jeremiah W. 2% 11% 28% 33% 20% 6% 1%
100 WILLIAMS Timothy - 5% 19% 33% 28% 12% 2%
102 LEVCHOOK Thomas - 7% 28% 38% 21% 5% -
103 KIM Joshua 6% 23% 34% 25% 10% 2% -
104 WEGENER Soren - 5% 17% 32% 30% 14% 2%
105 CHOU Benson 4% 19% 33% 28% 12% 2% -
106 HENSLEY Roran - 3% 17% 37% 33% 8%
107 JU Hanul - 3% 14% 31% 33% 16% 3%
108 ZOGRAFOS Nicholas 11% 31% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
108 DACHELET Sawyer 12% 38% 35% 13% 2% - -
110 MALAHOWSKI Patrick 11% 32% 35% 17% 4% 1% -
110 MALEADY Sean 4% 20% 35% 27% 11% 2% -
112 WONG Ethan 4% 17% 33% 30% 14% 3% -
113 ELTERMAN Lev - - 4% 19% 36% 31% 10%
114 MORALES Diego 27% 40% 24% 7% 1% - -
115 PETERSEN Zachary 6% 26% 36% 23% 7% 1% -
115 CHOI David 14% 33% 32% 16% 4% 1% -
117 PABLO Jesse 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
118 GARCIA-CABRERA Jeffrey 5% 22% 35% 26% 10% 2% -
119 O'CONNOR Ryan (Ryan O'Connor) D. - - 2% 9% 28% 41% 20%
120 PATCHETT Bennett 6% 23% 34% 25% 10% 2% -
120 GOESLING Jonathan - 4% 16% 30% 31% 16% 3%
122 REAGAN Henry 4% 19% 34% 29% 12% 3% -
123 ORMOND Andrew 5% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% -
124 LIPPMAN Elzy 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 5% 1%
125 REID Wesley 31% 42% 21% 5% 1% - -
126 MARSH Alex 4% 19% 32% 28% 13% 3% -
127 HAWLEY Justin 38% 45% 15% 2% - - -
128 MOYLAN Matthias - 1% 5% 22% 43% 29%
129 SMITH Samuel J. 5% 22% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
130 HERRON Jonathan 32% 43% 20% 4% - -
131 FAN Yuchen 25% 43% 25% 7% 1% -
132 RAPALSKI Thomas 24% 45% 25% 6% - -
133 MCMAHAN Christopher D. 6% 27% 38% 23% 6% -
134 NG Biwon 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 2%
134 COHEN Joshua 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
136 MAGNIN Lance W. 3% 14% 30% 31% 17% 4% -
137 KWAN Hall Gi 1% 7% 21% 33% 26% 10% 1%
138 SHILOV Maxim 10% 33% 34% 17% 4% 1% -
139 CARR Cage 4% 22% 35% 26% 10% 2% -
140 FESTIN Michael G. 1% 9% 26% 34% 22% 7% 1%
141 MOHAMED Sabir 6% 25% 36% 24% 8% 1% -
142 ANDERSON Donald 25% 40% 26% 8% 1% - -
142 POHL Philip 35% 41% 19% 4% - - -
144 SOLONOVICH Maksim 7% 27% 36% 22% 7% 1% -
145 CHANDLER Cory 48% 40% 11% 1% - - -
146 DILLON Anik 15% 34% 32% 15% 4% 1% -
147 DAVIDOVICH Eli 1% 9% 27% 35% 22% 5% -
148 LAWRENCE Brady 7% 27% 36% 22% 7% 1% -
149 PEREZ Daniel 57% 35% 8% 1% - - -
150 JACKSON Nicholas 5% 21% 33% 27% 12% 3% -
151 WHITELOCK James R. 15% 34% 32% 15% 4% - -
152 KELBLEY Jay 18% 37% 30% 12% 3% - -
153 THOMAS Jr. Robert D. < 1% 2% 10% 26% 35% 22% 5%
153 GATHRIGHT Anthony 22% 45% 25% 6% 1% - -
155 SHEN Jiayi 22% 39% 27% 9% 2% - -
156 MASK Austin 10% 29% 33% 20% 7% 1% -
157 ODEA Ryan 4% 19% 33% 28% 12% 3% -
158 GRAVIS Martin V. 35% 42% 18% 4% - - -
159 SMITH Charles 2% 15% 33% 32% 15% 3% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.