National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div III Men's Épée

Friday, July 7, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ROTHKA Spencer J. 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 41% 10%
2 JITTAN daniel 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 65% 23%
3 HU Robert J. 100% 100% 99% 94% 77% 43% 11%
3 HAN Lawrence 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 54%
5 ZHANG ethan 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 16%
6 JONES Reilly 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 40% 10%
7 ANDERSON Kai 100% 96% 76% 40% 12% 2% -
8 BAILEY David 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 19%
9 ROBINS Brennan 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 37%
10 LI Ethan R. 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 25% 5%
11 SHIRLEY Kai 100% 100% 97% 82% 52% 20% 3%
12 SIYANKO Joshua 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 40% 10%
13 DAO Alexander 100% 100% 98% 89% 65% 31% 7%
14 LEE Aiden 100% 100% 97% 86% 58% 25% 5%
15 CHU Brandon A. 100% 99% 90% 66% 34% 11% 1%
16 PARK Augustine 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 42% 11%
17 ABDELGAWAD Abdelrahman 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 27%
18 SMITH Troy H. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 24%
19 REDDY Arya 100% 99% 88% 56% 20% 3%
20 TEMPLEHOF Robert C. 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 32% 7%
21 LIU Dylan Y. 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 19% 2%
22 DURHAM Porter 100% 100% 98% 89% 65% 31% 7%
23 PAPP Mike 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
24 VILLAREAL Quentin 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 44% 11%
25 LEE Bryson 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 21% 3%
26 TIEMANN Landen 100% 99% 93% 73% 40% 12% 2%
27 FULLERTON Joshua D. 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 12% 1%
28 ZHENG Jerry 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 13%
29 GUPTA Karan 100% 99% 95% 77% 47% 17% 3%
30 SONG Troy 100% 100% 97% 85% 57% 24% 4%
31 FUSSMAN Yuval 100% 99% 93% 73% 41% 14% 2%
32 GABAY Daniel 100% 99% 90% 64% 29% 7% 1%
33 BUI Henry 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 31% 6%
34 PEÑA Ethan 100% 100% 99% 92% 72% 38% 9%
35 JANYSKA Allen 100% 100% 97% 81% 50% 18% 3%
35 MEN Junda 100% 100% 96% 80% 50% 18% 2%
37 KIM Jeff 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 7%
38 HESS Marc F. 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 38% 9%
39 CHAO Warren 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 4%
40 CHUNG Yeongbin 100% 100% 99% 87% 50% 8%
41 EMMERT JP 100% 99% 93% 73% 41% 14% 2%
42 PALAMARCHUK Matthew 100% 99% 93% 74% 42% 14% 2%
43 NALLAMSHETTY Ayan 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
44 HOWE Robert 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 20%
45 AGGELER Donovan 100% 100% 96% 82% 53% 21% 4%
46 AGARWAL Adheesh 100% 100% 97% 82% 51% 19% 3%
47 CHRISTIAN John R. 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 40% 10%
47 LEE Jacob 100% 99% 90% 66% 34% 11% 1%
49 MORTIMER Gavin 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 20% 3%
50 HANNON Owen 100% 99% 89% 56% 19% 2%
51 JOHNSON Ryder 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 33% 7%
52 KIM Teo 100% 99% 91% 61% 24% 5% -
52 PAULSEN Zachary 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 34% 7%
54 CHEN Bailey 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 9%
55 HERNANDEZ SANTIAGO 100% 100% 95% 76% 42% 13% 2%
56 PENG Gregory 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 27% 5%
57 MOSKOWITZ Martin 100% 75% 35% 10% 2% - -
58 DESAI Nalin H. 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 19% 3%
59 JACKSON Thomas 100% 97% 81% 50% 20% 5% -
59 MANITT Philip 100% 69% 27% 6% 1% - -
61 MALLON Jaxson 100% 97% 79% 47% 17% 4% -
62 CHENH Justin 100% 99% 89% 62% 28% 7% 1%
63 KORTZ Austin 100% 100% 95% 79% 47% 15% 2%
64 NOTT Kobi 100% 100% 96% 81% 52% 20% 4%
65 SHAFRITZ Noah 100% 100% 99% 90% 64% 28% 5%
66 JENNINGS Adin 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 20%
67 DAN Rex 100% 100% 96% 79% 46% 15% 2%
67 FU Jason 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 40% 10%
69 BUCCELLATO Joel S. 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 25% 4%
70 LOMIO Nicholas A. 100% 97% 82% 52% 22% 5% -
71 PARKS Isaac 100% 99% 92% 70% 36% 10% 1%
72 VALAYANNOPOULOS Nicolas 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 35% 8%
73 DANIELS Jonah 100% 99% 91% 67% 33% 9% 1%
74 HULL Liam 100% 98% 88% 62% 30% 8% 1%
75 ZHANG Roland 100% 98% 81% 47% 16% 3% -
76 BLAKESLEE Garrett H. 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 6% -
77 NAZARIAN Jonah 100% 100% 97% 85% 56% 23% 4%
78 SODHI Jaco 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 18%
79 POOLE James M. 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 43% 11%
80 GOROZA Eric 100% 80% 41% 12% 2% - -
81 RIVERA Louis 100% 97% 83% 52% 21% 5% -
82 VARON David 100% 100% 97% 84% 57% 25% 5%
83 RAHMAN Yousef 100% 92% 62% 24% 5% -
84 KUBATIN Anton V. 100% 99% 92% 65% 26% 4%
85 HOFFMANN Matthew 100% 95% 74% 41% 14% 3% -
86 RAO Neil 100% 93% 68% 34% 10% 2% -
87 BRUNDAGE Nevan 100% 97% 82% 50% 19% 4% -
87 BENFORD Kailan 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 17%
89 TORRES Gianni 100% 99% 94% 77% 46% 17% 3%
90 COLLINS Vernon 100% 96% 79% 46% 17% 3% -
90 JAIN Samyak 100% 98% 86% 56% 24% 5% -
90 KOSTUSIAK Evan 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
93 MISHRA Milan B. 100% 99% 89% 63% 30% 8% 1%
94 CARNALL Hunter 100% 97% 76% 40% 12% 2% -
95 PAINTER Noah 100% 95% 74% 40% 13% 2% -
95 EVERETT Taiger 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 6%
97 MONTOYA Joaquin G. 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 27% 4%
97 FAN Joshua 100% 96% 76% 42% 14% 2% -
99 COHEN Nathan 100% 95% 73% 37% 10% 1% -
100 LIU Jeremiah W. 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 7% 1%
100 WILLIAMS Timothy 100% 100% 95% 75% 42% 14% 2%
102 LEVCHOOK Thomas 100% 100% 93% 65% 27% 5% -
103 KIM Joshua 100% 94% 70% 36% 12% 2% -
104 WEGENER Soren 100% 100% 95% 78% 46% 16% 2%
105 CHOU Benson 100% 96% 76% 43% 15% 2% -
106 HENSLEY Roran 100% 100% 96% 79% 42% 8%
107 JU Hanul 100% 100% 97% 82% 51% 18% 3%
108 ZOGRAFOS Nicholas 100% 89% 57% 23% 5% 1% -
108 DACHELET Sawyer 100% 88% 50% 16% 2% - -
110 MALAHOWSKI Patrick 100% 89% 57% 22% 5% 1% -
110 MALEADY Sean 100% 96% 75% 41% 13% 2% -
112 WONG Ethan 100% 96% 79% 47% 17% 3% -
113 ELTERMAN Lev 100% 100% 100% 95% 77% 41% 10%
114 MORALES Diego 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
115 PETERSEN Zachary 100% 94% 68% 31% 8% 1% -
115 CHOI David 100% 86% 53% 21% 5% 1% -
117 PABLO Jesse 100% 99% 91% 67% 33% 9% 1%
118 GARCIA-CABRERA Jeffrey 100% 95% 74% 39% 12% 2% -
119 O'CONNOR Ryan (Ryan O'Connor) D. 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 61% 20%
120 PATCHETT Bennett 100% 94% 71% 37% 12% 2% -
120 GOESLING Jonathan 100% 100% 96% 80% 50% 19% 3%
122 REAGAN Henry 100% 96% 78% 44% 15% 3% -
123 ORMOND Andrew 100% 95% 74% 40% 13% 2% -
124 LIPPMAN Elzy 100% 98% 86% 57% 24% 6% 1%
125 REID Wesley 100% 69% 27% 6% 1% - -
126 MARSH Alex 100% 96% 77% 45% 16% 3% -
127 HAWLEY Justin 100% 62% 17% 2% - - -
128 MOYLAN Matthias 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 29%
129 SMITH Samuel J. 100% 95% 73% 38% 12% 2% -
130 HERRON Jonathan 100% 68% 25% 5% - -
131 FAN Yuchen 100% 75% 33% 7% 1% -
132 RAPALSKI Thomas 100% 76% 31% 6% - -
133 MCMAHAN Christopher D. 100% 94% 67% 29% 6% -
134 NG Biwon 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 12% 2%
134 COHEN Joshua 100% 96% 78% 45% 16% 3% -
136 MAGNIN Lance W. 100% 97% 83% 53% 22% 5% -
137 KWAN Hall Gi 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 12% 1%
138 SHILOV Maxim 100% 90% 56% 22% 5% 1% -
139 CARR Cage 100% 96% 74% 39% 12% 2% -
140 FESTIN Michael G. 100% 99% 89% 63% 29% 7% 1%
141 MOHAMED Sabir 100% 94% 69% 33% 9% 1% -
142 ANDERSON Donald 100% 75% 35% 9% 1% - -
142 POHL Philip 100% 65% 24% 5% 1% - -
144 SOLONOVICH Maksim 100% 93% 66% 30% 8% 1% -
145 CHANDLER Cory 100% 52% 12% 1% - - -
146 DILLON Anik 100% 85% 51% 20% 5% 1% -
147 DAVIDOVICH Eli 100% 99% 89% 63% 27% 6% -
148 LAWRENCE Brady 100% 93% 66% 30% 8% 1% -
149 PEREZ Daniel 100% 43% 9% 1% - - -
150 JACKSON Nicholas 100% 95% 74% 41% 14% 3% -
151 WHITELOCK James R. 100% 85% 51% 19% 4% - -
152 KELBLEY Jay 100% 82% 45% 15% 3% - -
153 THOMAS Jr. Robert D. 100% 100% 98% 88% 62% 27% 5%
153 GATHRIGHT Anthony 100% 78% 33% 7% 1% - -
155 SHEN Jiayi 100% 78% 38% 11% 2% - -
156 MASK Austin 100% 90% 61% 28% 8% 1% -
157 ODEA Ryan 100% 96% 76% 43% 15% 3% -
158 GRAVIS Martin V. 100% 65% 22% 4% - - -
159 SMITH Charles 100% 98% 83% 50% 18% 3% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.