Fairfax Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC & Y8

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, January 20, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 SO Lorenzo 100% 100% 94% 71% 34% 7%
2 WALLACE James 100% 100% 100% 95% 79% 45% 12%
3 YI Nathan 100% 99% 90% 66% 32% 9% 1%
3 YU Samuel 100% 94% 70% 36% 11% 2% -
5 CHRISTY Peter C. 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 13%
6 NORWOOD Malik 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 54% 17%
7 HU Robert J. 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 18%
8 LEE Aiden 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 6%
9 TOMASZEWSKI Joshua 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 6%
10 RIM Eugene 100% 97% 84% 56% 25% 6% 1%
11 YAP Nathan 100% 97% 81% 49% 18% 4% -
12 ROTHKA Spencer J. 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 32%
13 TIRADO Giancarlo 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 27% 5%
14 SINGH Ravin 100% 100% 97% 81% 47% 13%
15 RUSSELL James 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 11% 1%
16 PALAMARCHUK Andriy 100% 100% 94% 71% 34% 7%
17 KE Sebastian 100% 98% 83% 51% 19% 4% < 1%
18 PETROW Zoryan 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 45% 13%
19 LEE DoWon 100% 100% 96% 80% 48% 16% 2%
20 CHUNG Andrew 100% 99% 82% 46% 15% 2%
21 BERNARD Jack B. 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 16%
22 NORMILE Nicholas 100% 100% 99% 90% 67% 32% 6%
23 LEE Aiden 100% 99% 90% 66% 33% 10% 1%
24 PAL Ian K. 100% 100% 95% 79% 48% 18% 3%
25 BANNEN Nicholas 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 5%
26 CHENH Justin 100% 100% 98% 89% 65% 31% 7%
27 LIN Zizhen 100% 98% 88% 62% 28% 7% 1%
28 ANAFI Ari 100% 96% 76% 42% 14% 2% -
29 ARMSTRONG TyLee 100% 99% 89% 62% 27% 6% 1%
30 PENG Yue 100% 99% 92% 69% 34% 9% 1%
31 LEE Benjamin 100% 88% 55% 22% 5% 1% -
32 BUI Ryan 100% 78% 40% 12% 2% - -
33 YIN Chujun 100% 96% 78% 46% 18% 4% -
34 MORTIMER Gavin 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 5%
35 BUCCELLATO Joel S. 100% 99% 89% 58% 22% 4%
36 CHEMEZOV Trent 100% 100% 99% 95% 76% 40% 10%
37 KIM Joshua 100% 94% 70% 36% 11% 2% -
38 METZLER Calder 100% 97% 82% 52% 21% 4% -
39 CARNALL Hunter 100% 95% 71% 34% 9% 1%
40 SUN Ethan 100% 78% 38% 11% 2% -
41 JARRATT Isaac 100% 98% 88% 63% 32% 9% 1%
42 ZHANG Sen 100% 100% 98% 90% 67% 33% 8%
43 JONES Jackson 100% 98% 85% 56% 25% 6% 1%
44 CHHU Allen 100% 99% 93% 75% 44% 15% 2%
45 MANITT Philip 100% 92% 67% 33% 10% 2% -
46 YAO Andrew 100% 98% 84% 54% 23% 5% 1%
47 NALLICHERI Ayaan 100% 82% 43% 13% 2% - -
48 JARRELL Keegan 100% 89% 55% 21% 5% 1% -
49 THORN Evan 100% 31% 4% - - -
50 BYUN Andrew 100% 95% 74% 39% 12% 1%
51 MARKOWITZ Sam 100% 97% 82% 51% 20% 4% -
52 ALEXANDER Jacksen 100% 93% 66% 29% 7% 1% -
53 RUSSELL Tallis 100% 95% 75% 41% 14% 2% -
53 KNIGHT Ryan 100% 74% 31% 7% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.