San Diego Senior Cup #4

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, January 12, 2025 at 12:00 PM

San Diego Jewish Academy - San Diego, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SODERBERG Alex Z.	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	82%
2	CHIEN Brandon	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
3	LEE Royce	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
3	MORIN-JIANG Jake	-	1%	11%	49%	33%	6%
5	FIECHTNER Thomas A.	-	-	2%	27%	55%	16%
6	DILLON Anik	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
7	THOMAS Michael	-	-	7%	36%	42%	13%	1%
8	QUITORIANO Jonathan	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
9	MCDANIELS Jeremy	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
10	LIANG Donny	-	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	< 1%
11	NORTON Henry	-	3%	16%	35%	33%	12%	1%
12	POSSON Luke	3%	18%	38%	31%	9%	1%
13	HERBRANDSON Luke	-	1%	6%	28%	44%	20%	1%
14	JOHNSTON Conner S.	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	63%
15	DAVIDOVICH Eli	-	2%	17%	44%	30%	6%	-
16	ALLEN David	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	5%	-
17	ROMANO Ren	-	3%	13%	30%	35%	17%	2%
18	HARRIS Roark S.	-	-	6%	32%	41%	18%	2%
19	KOUTSOUKOS James	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%	-
20	CHOI Jung Jin	-	-	4%	22%	42%	29%	2%
21	KURITZ Marc M.	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	27%
22	LIANG Dong	12%	40%	39%	9%	1%	-
23	SKILLENS Davin	-	2%	14%	38%	36%	10%
24	TILLMAN Chase	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
25	WALSH Landon	2%	16%	42%	31%	8%	1%	-
26	SAMIMI Sina	12%	38%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
27	SETTE Alessandro	-	-	3%	18%	42%	34%	3%
28	SOLONOVICH Maksim	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
29	NUGENT Curtis	28%	51%	19%	2%	-	-	-
30	DE LAUNEY Merric	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
31	HUANG Tony	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	6%	-
32	HORN Evans	2%	37%	45%	14%	2%	-	-
33	KAGAN Gideon	43%	44%	12%	1%	-	-	-
34	GAYLORD Ronan	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
35	KENO Daniel	29%	47%	22%	3%	-	-
36	PICKETT Alexander	7%	31%	41%	18%	3%	-
37	SMITH Mason	37%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-
38	ROLAND Nikolas	41%	45%	13%	1%	-	-	-
39	SANTOS Benjamin	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%	-
40	TERRA BARRETT Isaiah	24%	47%	26%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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