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Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, February 9, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Savage Fencing Club - Savage, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PECK Quinn	-	-	2%	17%	52%	27%	2%
2	METZ Mason	-	-	1%	10%	43%	46%
3	YU William	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
3	STRADOMSKYI Klim	-	-	-	5%	31%	50%	13%
5	HOLLIS Sean	-	-	5%	26%	51%	19%
6	GODIN Willis	1%	16%	40%	34%	8%	1%
7	SHEA William	-	-	1%	15%	55%	29%
8	LACZIN Mark R.	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
9	DUSZA Zachery	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
10	BEREKNYEI Thomas	-	-	-	5%	42%	53%
11	PRUT Anton	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
12	CHOU-ESTEBAN Pau	-	1%	14%	46%	38%	1%
13	NAUGHTON Aidan	9%	42%	39%	10%	-
14	SHICK Veronika	-	4%	24%	46%	24%	2%
15	COSSROW Alex	1%	12%	36%	37%	12%	1%
16	CRAYTON Royce S.	-	-	-	< 1%	5%	33%	61%
17	CHANG Zane	2%	21%	39%	29%	9%	1%
18	BERGMANN Beatrix	22%	47%	27%	4%	-
19	RUSANOV Oleg	-	1%	11%	46%	43%
20	STANSBURY Desmond	4%	22%	41%	28%	5%	-	-
21	WESTGATE Rebecca	14%	41%	33%	11%	1%	-
22	CANDELARIA Armando	4%	21%	40%	29%	6%	-
23	MOORE Addisyn	8%	35%	40%	15%	2%	-
24	MACKAY Ian	-	6%	30%	49%	14%	1%
25	NOVOTNY Felicia A.	6%	40%	45%	9%	-	-
26	JEROME Trevor	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
27	RHEE Josiah	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
28	CHANG Xavier	1%	21%	43%	29%	6%	-
29	TSENG Lucas	3%	21%	40%	29%	6%	-	-
30	MILLIGAN Lauren M.	-	< 1%	14%	54%	33%
31	DAVIS Connor	1%	17%	39%	32%	10%	1%
32	DONOHUE Peter	5%	31%	39%	20%	4%	-
33	MARTINEZ Rodrigo	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
34	FOOR Jonathan	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	6%
35	MARKERT Delaney	26%	50%	21%	3%	-	-
36	MYERS Kenneth	28%	43%	23%	5%	-	-	-
37	COLEMAN Samantha	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
37	JAIN Dia	38%	45%	15%	1%	-	-
39	SCHOEPFLE Carla	28%	56%	15%	1%	-
40	RAMBHARAT Kheamraj	15%	38%	33%	12%	1%	-
41	STENSON Alyssa	51%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
42	HONG Nathan	16%	44%	32%	8%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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