The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

The St. James RJCC with non-regional DV1A/VET/TEAM OPEN Epee and Foil Tournament

Cadet Men's Épée

Saturday, January 12, 2019 at 12:00 PM

Springfield , VA - Springfield, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LEE Daniel Y.	100%	100%	99%	94%	71%	29%
2	O'HARA Keegan J.	100%	98%	82%	46%	14%	2%
3	PARK Minchan	100%	100%	93%	71%	34%	7%
3	RHYU Kozmo	100%	98%	87%	57%	22%	3%
5	RODRIGUEZ Ryan	100%	100%	93%	68%	30%	6%
6	KIM Minjun	100%	86%	50%	15%	2%
7	KROPP Jack	100%	97%	80%	45%	14%	2%
8	PARK Ian C.	100%	100%	99%	94%	71%	30%
9	MITCHUM Drew J	100%	100%	95%	74%	32%
10	WIMMER Chandler M.	100%	99%	92%	67%	30%	6%
11	ZHANG Andrew	100%	94%	67%	30%	7%	1%
12	NOMANI Shibli D.	100%	99%	88%	60%	24%	4%
13	LEE Shwan	100%	100%	98%	83%	48%	13%
14	WU Byron	100%	82%	42%	11%	1%
15	STUBBLEFIELD Alexander	100%	99%	89%	61%	25%	5%
16	JEYOON Ryan S.	100%	99%	92%	66%	28%	5%
17	HODGE Jaydon L.	100%	78%	38%	10%	1%	-
18	BORAK Samuel	100%	72%	30%	7%	1%	-
19	STUBBLEFIELD Evan	100%	95%	71%	29%	4%
20	KANACH Duncan	100%	93%	65%	29%	7%	1%
21	MUN Chur-Yong	100%	62%	18%	2%	-	-
22	REITINGER Luke M.	100%	91%	57%	20%	3%	-
23	BAGHA Armin	100%	96%	74%	35%	7%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.