March NAC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, March 7, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Huntington Convention Center of Cleveland - Cleveland, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 DU Evan 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 72%
2 LUO Alexander 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 73%
3 KROPP Wesley 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 42%
3 HWANG Matthew 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 54%
5 ZHANG Chaoyi(Joey) 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 45%
6 CHEN Aiden 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 37%
7 LIU Austin 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 42%
8 LAI Jayden 100% 99% 95% 77% 45% 15% 2%
9 LEE Lucas 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 47% 7%
10 WU MiEr 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 36%
11 ARMSTRONG Payson 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 60% 21%
12 NOOL Aaron 100% 100% 98% 90% 67% 33% 8%
13 MASKIN Mikhail 100% 100% 98% 81% 36%
14 YAO Aiden 100% 100% 100% 95% 78% 44% 11%
15 LIN Bryan 100% 100% 99% 90% 67% 33% 7%
16 WANG Suian (Andy) 100% 100% 98% 84% 51% 14%
17 WU Nathan 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 28%
18 TANG Daniel 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 31%
19 LEE Leo 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 25%
20 KHUSHRAJ Rohan 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 29%
21 LI Andy 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 53% 16%
22 MADRIGAL SALVAT Guillermo 100% 100% 96% 79% 46% 13%
23 SAMOYLOV Daniel 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 21% 3%
24 KUYKENDALL Logan 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 19% 2%
25 CHUNG Daehyun Daniel 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 31% 6%
26 JIN Noah 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 26% 5%
27 LIU Yihong 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 49% 14%
28 CHIANG William 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 25%
29 WANG carson 100% 100% 95% 76% 41% 11% 1%
30 YAO Ryan 100% 100% 100% 96% 79% 36%
31 HOREMIOTIS Bennett 100% 100% 97% 81% 43% 9%
32 YIM Antonio 100% 98% 81% 39% 7%
33 LEE James K. 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 27%
34 LU Ian 100% 100% 98% 85% 53% 16%
35 FANG Charlie 100% 100% 97% 82% 46% 10%
36 WANG Mason 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 37% 8%
37 TANG Luke 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 57% 19%
38 MOSLEY Wally 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 43%
39 TIAN Dylan 100% 100% 96% 81% 51% 20% 3%
40 HUA Nolan 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 37% 9%
40 MBERIA Henry 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 6%
42 ZHANG Aiden 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 38% 9%
43 MA Joseph 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 35% 8%
44 GEVA Reuben 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 30% 5%
45 FAYEZ Adam 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 27% 4%
46 WONG Kyle 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 57% 20%
47 CHAN Nathan 100% 99% 90% 67% 33% 9% 1%
48 YOO Lucas 100% 100% 97% 82% 44% 8% -
49 CHEN Linus 100% 99% 92% 60% 17%
50 JU Shang 100% 100% 97% 82% 52% 19% 3%
51 ZHENG Jasper 100% 100% 98% 90% 67% 32% 7%
52 DING Max 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 51% 15%
53 SUN Jerry 100% 100% 98% 90% 67% 33% 8%
54 MITTELSTAEDT EJ 100% 98% 88% 60% 26% 6% 1%
55 YAO Irvine 100% 99% 89% 65% 32% 9% 1%
56 BENNETTE Graham 100% 95% 74% 40% 14% 3% -
57 ZHAO Kyle Zekai 100% 99% 95% 77% 45% 14% 1%
58 ZHANG Jayden 100% 87% 54% 20% 4% -
59 ZHAO Luke 100% 99% 91% 66% 32% 8% 1%
60 KUYKENDALL Lucas 100% 99% 90% 63% 28% 6% -
61 YOU Asher 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 36% 8%
62 SCHLUBACH Jasper 100% 99% 91% 66% 31% 8% 1%
63 SI Alexander 100% 82% 44% 13% 2% - -
64 YIM Benjamin 100% 96% 79% 48% 18% 4% -
65 RAU Shogun 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 71% 29%
66 FU Benjamin 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 21% 4%
67 LEUNG Joon 100% 98% 85% 55% 23% 5% -
68 PURCELL Jonathan 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 6%
70 KOVAC Blake 100% 100% 100% 95% 78% 43% 11%
71 KIM Ian 100% 100% 99% 94% 73% 38% 9%
72 CHA Aiden 100% 99% 85% 50% 16% 2%
73 KO Ethan 100% 100% 99% 89% 63% 28% 5%
74 BOROVIKOV Alexander 100% 99% 94% 75% 44% 16% 2%
75 CAREY John 100% 100% 100% 95% 78% 43% 11%
76 ZHAO Ryan 100% 100% 94% 75% 39% 10% 1%
77 CHEN Nathan 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 21% 4%
78 LIU Maximilian 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 8% 1%
79 YI Alexander 100% 100% 97% 83% 53% 20% 3%
80 TALANDZEVICIUS Tomas 100% 99% 90% 65% 32% 8% 1%
81 LI Vance 100% 99% 93% 71% 35% 8% -
81 CHEN Hayden 100% 98% 86% 55% 21% 3% -
83 ZHANG Eason 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 26%
84 BALLEZA Maximilian 100% 100% 96% 79% 47% 17% 2%
85 BEN-YOSEPH Rafael 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 3%
86 YUN Mason 100% 100% 95% 75% 40% 12% 2%
87 GUO Jonathan 100% 99% 90% 66% 34% 10% 1%
87 CHEN Regis 100% 95% 75% 42% 14% 3% -
89 BALUCAN Gabriel 100% 97% 79% 47% 16% 2%
90 YU Rex 100% 91% 63% 28% 7% 1%
91 THOMSON Piers 100% 89% 57% 22% 5% -
92 ROBERTS Arthur 100% 100% 98% 84% 51% 14%
93 LAI Jaxon 100% 99% 86% 53% 17% 2%
94 CHU Clayton 100% 98% 86% 53% 18% 2%
95 HAO hardy 100% 82% 39% 9% 1% -
96 KRAVCHENKO Philip 100% 96% 74% 34% 7% 1%
97 YOON Ian 100% 99% 93% 71% 37% 11% 1%
98 DUCHNOWSKI Thiesson 100% 99% 91% 68% 33% 9% 1%
99 LI Jayden 100% 99% 91% 62% 25% 5% -
100 GUJJA Rishabh 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 24% 2%
101 HOLDEN Harrison 100% 100% 95% 77% 44% 14% 2%
102 PARK Ethan 100% 100% 99% 90% 64% 26% 3%
103 NG Remy 100% 100% 97% 82% 50% 17% 2%
104 IVANOV Andrew 100% 99% 90% 63% 27% 5% -
105 LEE Daniel 100% 94% 71% 35% 10% 1% -
106 LU Shawn 100% 98% 84% 52% 19% 3% -
107 NOVOSELOV Roman 100% 100% 98% 84% 46% 10%
108 KICIMAN Louis 100% 93% 65% 27% 6% -
109 CHEN Anderson 100% 99% 90% 60% 24% 4%
110 SZETO Jonathan 100% 89% 55% 19% 3% -
111 SOMANI Ilyaa 100% 94% 72% 39% 13% 2% -
112 KIM Siwoo 100% 98% 88% 62% 29% 7% 1%
113 WANG William 100% 88% 57% 23% 6% 1% -
114 ZHAO Brandon 100% 99% 90% 63% 28% 7% 1%
115 SOHONI Vir 100% 98% 86% 58% 25% 6% 1%
116 CHEUNG Daniel 100% 98% 82% 43% 10% 1% -
117 MILOWSKY Majai 100% 98% 84% 52% 20% 4% -
118 WANG Henry 100% 99% 87% 57% 24% 5% -
119 XUAN nathan 100% 95% 73% 38% 12% 2% -
120 VAN RIET Matteo 100% 97% 82% 50% 19% 4% -
121 YONG Connor 100% 99% 90% 65% 32% 9% 1%
122 KIM Aiden 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 32% 7%
123 LIU YULIN 100% 99% 88% 58% 21% 3%
124 CHAU Ivan 100% 97% 83% 50% 18% 3%
125 FERNANDEZ Chenxing 100% 98% 84% 54% 21% 4%
126 YAN Milan 100% 99% 88% 57% 23% 5% -
127 YOU Emmanuel 100% 97% 79% 45% 16% 3% -
128 PAGLIARINI James 100% 94% 71% 37% 12% 2% -
129 LI Kingston 100% 98% 87% 59% 26% 6% 1%
130 CHEN Caleb 100% 83% 45% 14% 2% - -
131 GORE Noah 100% 96% 77% 44% 16% 3% -
132 JUNG Brandon 100% 92% 66% 32% 9% 1% -
133 BUTLER Xavier 100% 100% 94% 72% 35% 9% 1%
134 KHALID Ilyas 100% 99% 93% 72% 40% 13% 2%
135 HOHMAN Elias 100% 69% 25% 5% - - -
136 DUCHNOWSKI Kempson 100% 82% 44% 13% 2% - -
137 FONG Ethan 100% 70% 22% 3% -
138 XIONG Alec 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 12% 1%
139 AHMAD Aydin 100% 82% 42% 12% 2% - -
140 HWANG Christopher 100% 70% 25% 4% - -
141 YADAV Aarav 100% 88% 54% 19% 3% -
142 CHANG Ephram 100% 98% 81% 45% 13% 1%
143 QU ethan 100% 61% 19% 3% - -
144 LIN Oliver 100% 78% 38% 10% 1% -
145 BONTHA Aneesh 100% 99% 89% 64% 31% 8% 1%
146 TANG Jayce 100% 98% 85% 56% 24% 5% -
147 GIRIRAJ Aditya 100% 95% 73% 38% 11% 2% -
149 CARPENTER Taisei 100% 92% 63% 27% 7% 1% -
150 WANG Lucas 100% 98% 86% 57% 23% 4%
151 CHEN Zhi-yang 100% 98% 80% 43% 13% 2% -
152 CHO Lincoln 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 7% 1%
153 WANG Alexander 100% 79% 40% 12% 2% - -
154 BUCHNER Theodore 100% 94% 69% 32% 8% 1% -
155 CHI Zachary 100% 96% 77% 40% 11% 1%
156 MORET Declan 100% 31% 4% - - -
157 DAI Jason 100% 100% 98% 87% 58% 23% 4%
158 GREGORY Milo 100% 95% 73% 37% 11% 2% -
159 CHU Joe 100% 91% 64% 30% 9% 1% -
160 AKKARA Skyler 100% 69% 27% 6% 1% - -
161 JIANG Adam 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 6%
162 SATHYAN Dhruv 100% 94% 67% 31% 8% 1% -
163 LAM Brandon 100% 99% 89% 60% 27% 7% 1%
164 ZHANG Jacob 100% 96% 76% 43% 15% 3% -
164 ORIGER John 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 77% 24%
166 ABEYSINGHE Sayul 100% 92% 57% 20% 4% - -
167 MILLER Brodrick 100% 91% 64% 30% 9% 1% -
167 HATZIGIANNIS Paris 100% 83% 44% 13% 2% - -
169 ALI Akash 100% 96% 70% 33% 9% 1% -
170 BUSH Andrew 100% 94% 71% 38% 13% 2% -
171 SHABBIR Mohammad Amaan 100% 89% 58% 23% 5% 1% -
172 TRIVULCE Ethan 100% 84% 48% 16% 3% - -
173 ECCLESTONE Liam 100% 45% 10% 1% - - -
174 GAO Kevin 100% 98% 83% 51% 19% 4% -
175 LENEGHAN Declan 100% 89% 55% 20% 4% - -
176 ARULKUMAR Rihaan 100% 83% 44% 13% 2% - -
177 MATUSOW Brandon 100% 91% 60% 24% 5% - -
177 LI Nathan Zeting 100% 67% 25% 5% 1% - -
179 YONG Dylan 100% 92% 65% 31% 9% 1% -
180 LI Jacob 100% 96% 77% 42% 14% 3% -
180 JAISING Kian 100% 96% 77% 41% 13% 2% -
182 LAW Benjamin 100% 82% 39% 9% 1% - -
182 YU Luca 100% 97% 83% 54% 23% 6% 1%
184 LI Sean 100% 98% 80% 43% 13% 1%
185 LIU FREDERICK 100% 100% 95% 73% 34% 6%
186 KIM Brendan 100% 96% 78% 46% 16% 3% -
187 SOTO Lucas 100% 75% 33% 8% 1% -
188 LIN Daniel 100% 91% 64% 30% 8% 1% -
189 GAO Jonathan G. 100% 93% 69% 34% 9% 1%
190 SCHELTZ Owen 100% 88% 57% 23% 6% 1% -
191 ZHOU Scott 100% 100% 94% 67% 29% 6% -
192 DOLEZAL Grayson 100% 70% 24% 4% -
193 REED Andrew 100% 83% 45% 14% 2% - -
193 WU JiaEr 100% 88% 55% 22% 5% 1% -
195 KIM Kaiden 100% 89% 58% 25% 7% 1% -
196 ROCHE Theodore 100% 90% 55% 18% 3% -
197 REN Mark 100% 96% 78% 43% 13% 2%
198 ERLIKHMAN Emanuel 100% 93% 67% 31% 8% 1% -
199 JI Dylan 100% 51% 12% 1% - - -
199 HERIGSTAD Daniel 100% 67% 24% 5% - - -
199 WU KADEN 100% 91% 61% 26% 6% 1% -
202 BARTELT Alexander 100% 71% 28% 6% 1% - -
203 CHAN Aiden 100% 78% 38% 10% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.