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Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, January 19, 2020 at 3:30 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Kyran	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
2	CHUNG Thomas	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	24%	6%
3	MOSES Alexander	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	HUNT Aidan	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
5	MENDOZA Zachari	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
6	JAIN Aditya	-	-	5%	21%	39%	29%	6%
7	ZHU Max	-	-	1%	7%	24%	41%	27%
8	BRUSKOTTER Reiland	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	4%
9	THOMPSON Chester	-	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
10	KIM Darius H.	-	5%	20%	38%	30%	7%
11	JIN daniel	-	-	1%	14%	46%	39%
12	GILLISON Edward L.	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
13	WANG DEVON	-	2%	14%	41%	35%	8%
14	DEKERMANJI Christopher	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
15	KOPPE Alexander	1%	7%	26%	39%	24%	4%
16	GUPTA-GARCIA Raj	18%	45%	31%	6%	-	-
17	DRIBIN Ezra	-	1%	8%	37%	43%	11%
18	NOEL Sebastien A.	-	-	3%	24%	49%	25%
19	ALFARO Justus	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
20	LAGARNIA Luke	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
21	DALVA Michael	-	4%	22%	45%	25%	4%
22	EVANS noah	4%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
23	MCDONALD Ethan	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
24	FERRIERE Joshua	2%	12%	30%	33%	18%	5%	-
25	DAO Alexander	7%	33%	40%	17%	3%	-
26	BAZHENOV Anthony	4%	25%	41%	24%	6%	-
27	SCHROEDER Dylan	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
28	CROSSMAN Brandon	24%	44%	26%	5%	-	-
29	SAMY David	7%	33%	42%	16%	2%	-
30	BARRESI Isaac	38%	45%	15%	2%	-	-
31	CHUNG Michael	20%	43%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
32	NGO Ethan	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
33	LEE Chun Po	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
34	PAK Elliot	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
35	CHEN Brian	1%	7%	24%	36%	24%	8%	1%
36	LEE Jaden T.	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
37	MENDOZA Zander	2%	14%	36%	33%	13%	2%	-
38	LO Jake	1%	11%	31%	37%	18%	3%
39	COPEN Samuel S.	24%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
40	KIM Sullivan	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-	-
41	LIPSHUTZ Zachary	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
42	SACHS Sebastian	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
42	GUPTA-GARCIA Krish	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
44	COPEN Elliot P.	26%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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