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Cadet Men's Épée

Saturday, June 12, 2021 at 8:00 AM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LEE Seungwon	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
2	KOZAKIEWICZ Filip	-	4%	18%	34%	32%	11%
3	SPINA Joseph B.	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
3	XIAO Andrew	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
5	NIKOLOV Peter	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	19%
6	NESTEROV Andrew E.	-	-	5%	23%	44%	27%
7	DAVOODIAN Christopher	-	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
8	TIKHOMIROV Theodore	3%	18%	35%	30%	12%	2%
9	ZHENG Haoran	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
10	SHCHUR Landon	-	1%	7%	26%	41%	25%
11	CARRIER Gabriel A.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
12	MCKEEVER Luca	-	1%	7%	26%	41%	24%
13	ZHU Eric	12%	44%	33%	10%	1%	-
14	KARNAS Karol	1%	10%	28%	35%	20%	4%
15	KIM Nathan	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
16	WANG owen	4%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
17	PRABHAKAR vibhav	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
18	WALIGORA Sebastian	5%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
19	YAO Geoffrey B.	-	4%	18%	35%	32%	11%
20	KRZYSIAK David F.	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
21	LOISEAU Eliott	5%	21%	35%	28%	11%	2%
22	SHA Michael	1%	13%	41%	33%	10%	1%
23	SONN Rohan	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
24	CORRALES Victor M.	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	2%
25	WALIGORA Krystian	9%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
26	WOLFE Alex	-	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
27	O'DONNELL Benjamin	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
28	BRADFORD Ethan	-	4%	22%	45%	25%	4%
29	DIVERIS Joseph	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
30	HINGSBERGEN Perry	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
31	RICHARDSON Ray	58%	35%	6%	-	-	-
32	ROBERTS Magnus	28%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-
33	TASKIRAN Mete	26%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
34	MUGA Aiden	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-
35	HOLLOWAY Phoenix	15%	40%	33%	11%	1%	-
36	SIEFKER Ian	32%	43%	21%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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