Garden State RJCC

Junior Men's Foil

Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 12:00 PM

The Sportsplex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FOGELSON Frederick J.	-	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
2	RUSADZE Nickolas	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
3	FU Samuel Y.	-	-	1%	10%	45%	37%	7%
3	BAE Kevin	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	17%
5	COSTELLO Chaissen F.	-	-	-	4%	31%	48%	17%
6	LAURICELLA Douglas	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
7	LIANG Lixi (Henry)	-	-	-	1%	8%	39%	52%
8	TRAUGOT Owen G.	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
9	SHIN Joshua J.	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	6%
10	AHN Jun	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	23%
11	SONG Bryan	-	4%	21%	43%	27%	5%	-
12	LI Matthew	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	19%	2%
13	OURSLER Jack	-	-	-	-	9%	41%	49%
14	CHENG Jonathan	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
15	KLOTZ Isaiah	5%	30%	40%	20%	4%	-
16	YOON DYLAN	-	6%	33%	48%	11%	1%	-
17	DAI Jonathan T.	-	-	4%	19%	45%	32%
18	LEUNG Wai Chi Ethan	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
19	ZELTSER Lawrence M.	-	-	1%	7%	31%	47%	15%
20	MENG Zhaoyi	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%	-
20	REZA Farazi	34%	45%	18%	3%	-	-
22	TSIMIKLIS Yanni	-	1%	10%	29%	38%	20%	3%
23	BADLANI Dev	-	5%	32%	41%	18%	3%	-
24	ARANA Massimo	5%	27%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
25	ZHEN Ethan	-	8%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-
26	WANG Gerald Y.	-	4%	22%	40%	27%	6%
27	LEWIS Akhil	2%	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%
28	TSAI William	43%	44%	11%	1%	-	-	-
29	GUO Sean	5%	24%	38%	26%	6%	1%
30	GUO Justin	4%	26%	41%	23%	5%	-
31	GARR James D.	21%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
32	RNO Kyler	15%	43%	33%	8%	1%	-	-
33	MELE-KEAN Forrest	26%	52%	20%	2%	-	-	-
34	CARREYROU Jack	53%	40%	6%	-	-	-	-
35	GOPALAN Anish H.	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
36	LI Ayren	23%	46%	25%	5%	-	-
37	SATTAR Dylan	12%	36%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
38	ALONSO Vinicius	2%	19%	49%	26%	3%	-	-
39	KANDADAI Arjun	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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