South Coast Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJC

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, January 15, 2022 at 11:00 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Main Ballroom - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JEON Alexander E.	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
2	NORBUTAS Jackson S.	-	-	-	-	6%	35%	59%
3	JIN Nicholas	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
3	LIN Kyran	-	-	1%	11%	38%	49%
5	KIM Nathan	-	2%	16%	43%	32%	7%
6	WRIGHT Christopher	-	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
7	DEKERMANJI Christopher	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	9%
8	ALVAREZ Ian T.	-	3%	14%	34%	35%	13%
9	AHN Gus	-	-	1%	13%	43%	43%
10	HWANG Samuel W.	-	-	1%	9%	33%	44%	12%
11	MENDOZA Zachari	-	2%	13%	33%	36%	15%
12	WANG owen	1%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
13	LIU Felix	1%	11%	34%	37%	15%	1%
14	ZHOU Stanley Q.	-	1%	8%	34%	43%	14%
15	CHUNG Thomas	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
16	PHUKAN Rohin	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	2%
17	ZHENG Haoran	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
18	LIU Andrew	-	2%	12%	32%	39%	15%
19	WANG DEVON	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
20	WESTON Tom	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
21	KOPPE Alexander	1%	6%	24%	39%	26%	5%
22	FU Leon	7%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%
23	GENCHEV Madav	29%	42%	23%	5%	1%	-
24	CROSSMAN Brandon	11%	40%	36%	12%	2%	-
25	CHOI Kaiden I.	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-	-
26	LO Jake	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	13%	1%
27	JU Hanul	11%	32%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
28	KIM Darius H.	1%	11%	35%	37%	14%	1%
29	DRIBIN Ezra	-	3%	17%	39%	34%	7%
30	KIM Sullivan	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
31	STCLAIR Jake	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	3%
32	SHA Michael	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%
33	HARR Carver	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	15%	2%
34	PAK Elliot	5%	26%	38%	23%	7%	1%	-
35	SCHROEDER Dylan	3%	19%	37%	29%	11%	2%	-
36	EVERS Gabriel	6%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
37	KIM Ian	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
38	YOUNG Jr Colby	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
39	LIU Yikun	27%	50%	21%	3%	-	-
40	LEE Chun Po	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
41	PRAKASH Hari	29%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-
42	GU Aidan	3%	21%	46%	26%	5%	-
43	MIAO KUNQI	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
44	COMER Alexander J.	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%	-
45	TIEN Jabin	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
46	FERDOWSIAN Samuel	40%	46%	13%	1%	-	-
47	DALVA Michael	5%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
48	ELANGO SriVaaikuntesh	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-	-
49	LEE JiYuen	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
50	MAJAM Audie	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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